Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39181864›Full record

ArticleNature communications2024

AlphaFold predictions of fold-switched conformations are driven by structure memorization.

Devlina Chakravarty, Joseph W Schafer, Ethan A Chen, Joseph F Thole, Leslie A Ronish, Myeongsang Lee, Lauren L Porter

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature communications, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 90 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
90citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

90 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Review
  2. Article
  3. Article
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  7. Article
  8. Review
  9. Article
  10. Article
  11. Article
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  14. Article
  15. Article
  16. Fold-Switching Proteins.Annual review of biophysics · 2026
    Review
  17. Article
  18. Article
  19. Article
  20. Bias in the AlphaFold3 prediction of ligand-induced domain motion in enzymes.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026
    Article

30 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Devlina ChakravartyNational Center for Biotechnology Information, National Library of Medicine, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, 20894, USA.
Joseph W SchaferNational Center for Biotechnology Information, National Library of Medicine, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, 20894, USA.
Ethan A ChenNational Center for Biotechnology Information, National Library of Medicine, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, 20894, USA.
Joseph F TholeNational Center for Biotechnology Information, National Library of Medicine, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, 20894, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-4342-8165
Leslie A RonishNational Center for Biotechnology Information, National Library of Medicine, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, 20894, USA.
Myeongsang LeeNational Center for Biotechnology Information, National Library of Medicine, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, 20894, USA.
Lauren L PorterNational Center for Biotechnology Information, National Library of Medicine, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, 20894, USA. porterll@nih.gov.ORCID 0000-0003-2031-8326

Funding

Predictions and experimental validation of fold-switching proteinsZIALM202011 · NLM · NATIONAL LIBRARY OF MEDICINE · PI PORTER, LAUREN · 2020 to 2025
$6.5M
U.S. Department of Health & Human Services | NIH | U.S. National Library of Medicine (NLM) LM202011
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Recent work suggests that AlphaFold (AF)-a deep learning-based model that can accurately infer protein structure from sequence-may discern important features of folded protein energy landscapes, defined by the diversity and frequency of different conformations in the folded state. Here, we test the limits of its predictive power on fold-switching proteins, which assume two structures with regions of distinct secondary and/or tertiary structure. We find that (1) AF is a weak predictor of fold switching and (2) some of its successes result from memorization of training-set structures rather than learned protein energetics. Combining >280,000 models from several implementations of AF2 and AF3, a 35% success rate was achieved for fold switchers likely in AF's training sets. AF2's confidence metrics selected against models consistent with experimentally determined fold-switching structures and failed to discriminate between low and high energy conformations. Further, AF captured only one out of seven experimentally confirmed fold switchers outside of its training sets despite extensive sampling of an additional ~280,000 models. Several observations indicate that AF2 has memorized structural information during training, and AF3 misassigns coevolutionary restraints. These limitations constrain the scope of successful predictions, highlighting the need for physically based methods that readily predict multiple protein conformations.

Indexed as

Protein ConformationProtein FoldingProteinsDeep LearningModels, MolecularProtein Structure, SecondaryProteins

Identifiers

PMID39181864
PMCPMC11344769

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.