Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39179747›Full record

ReviewNature human behaviour2024

Causal inference on human behaviour.

Drew H Bailey, Alexander J Jung, Adriene M Beltz, Markus I Eronen, Christian Gische, Ellen L Hamaker, Konrad P Kording, Catherine Lebel, Martin A Lindquist, Julia Moeller and 4 more

Abstract readReview
PubMed Publisher
In one paragraph

Review in Nature human behaviour, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 20 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
20citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

20 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  10. Ambient heat and early childhood development: a cross-national analysis.Journal of child psychology and psychiatry, and allied disciplines · 2026
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  19. An entropic explanation of insistence on sameness in autism.Frontiers in computational neuroscience · 2025
    Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

14 authors.

Drew H BaileySchool of Education, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, CA, USA. dhbailey@uci.edu.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7812-1107
Alexander J JungHector Research Institute of Education Sciences and Psychology, University of Tübingen, Tübingen, Germany.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3699-9066
Adriene M BeltzDepartment of Psychology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5754-8083
Markus I EronenDepartment of Theoretical Philosophy, University of Groningen, Groningen, the Netherlands.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2028-3338
Christian GischeDepartment of Psychology, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany.
Ellen L HamakerMethodology and Statistics, Faculty of Social and Behavioural Sciences, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands.
Konrad P KordingDepartment of Bioengineering, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8408-4499
Catherine LebelAlberta Children's Hospital Research Institute, Calgary, Alberta, Canada.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-0344-4032
Martin A LindquistDepartment of Biostatistics, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA.
Julia MoellerLeipzig University, Leipzig, Germany.
Adeel RaziTurner Institute for Brain and Mental Health, School of Psychological Sciences, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, Australia.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-0779-9439
Julia M RohrerWilhelm Wundt Institute for Psychology, Faculty of Life Sciences, Leipzig University, Leipzig, Germany.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8564-4523
Baobao ZhangMaxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs, Syracuse University, Syracuse, NY, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-7217-5035
Kou MurayamaHector Research Institute of Education Sciences and Psychology, University of Tübingen, Tübingen, Germany.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2902-9600

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Making causal inferences regarding human behaviour is difficult given the complex interplay between countless contributors to behaviour, including factors in the external world and our internal states. We provide a non-technical conceptual overview of challenges and opportunities for causal inference on human behaviour. The challenges include our ambiguous causal language and thinking, statistical under- or over-control, effect heterogeneity, interference, timescales of effects and complex treatments. We explain how methods optimized for addressing one of these challenges frequently exacerbate other problems. We thus argue that clearly specified research questions are key to improving causal inference from data. We suggest a triangulation approach that compares causal estimates from (quasi-)experimental research with causal estimates generated from observational data and theoretical assumptions. This approach allows a systematic investigation of theoretical and methodological factors that might lead estimates to converge or diverge across studies.

Indexed as

CausalityBehaviorHumansResearch Design

Identifiers

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.