ArticleEmerging infectious diseases2024
Optimizing Disease Outbreak Forecast Ensembles.
Article in Emerging infectious diseases, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
10 citing papers in PubMed.
- Environmental and epidemiological drivers of dengue forecasting across heterogeneous transmission settings in Brazil and Panama.One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2026Article
- Evaluation of short-term multi-target respiratory forecasts over winter 2024-25 in England using sub-ensemble contribution analyses.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- Learning shared forecast-error structure to improve ensemble forecasts of seasonal respiratory outbreaks.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2026Article
- Adaptive multi-model ensembles for improved epidemic projections and decision support.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2026Article
- Ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 activity to support Australia's pandemic response: 2020-22.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- Multi-Model Ensembles in Infectious Disease and Public Health: Methods, Interpretation, and Implementation in R.Statistics in medicine · 2026Article
- Coordinating collaborative infectious disease modeling projects with the hubverse.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2025Article
- PLANES: Plausibility analysis of epidemiological signals.PloS one · 2025Article
- Keeping a modeling-driven public health dashboard relevant-lessons learned from the California Communicable diseases Assessment Tool.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- How can modeling responsibly inform decision-making in malaria?PLoS biology · 2025Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
Abstract
On the basis of historical influenza and COVID-19 forecasts, we found that more than 3 forecast models are needed to ensure robust ensemble accuracy. Additional models can improve ensemble performance, but with diminishing accuracy returns. This understanding will assist with the design of current and future collaborative infectious disease forecasting efforts.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.