Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39173626›Full record

ArticleAmerican journal of human genetics2024

Calibration of variant effect predictors on genome-wide data masks heterogeneous performance across genes.

Malvika Tejura, Shawn Fayer, Abbye E McEwen, Jake Flynn, Lea M Starita, Douglas M Fowler

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in American journal of human genetics, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 26 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
26citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

26 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Article
  3. Phenotype-Specific Recalibration of MAVE Data Enables Repurposing ofmedRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2026
    Article
  4. Article
  5. Review
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Review
  10. A scalable approach to resolving variants of uncertain significance.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2026
    Article
  11. Article
  12. Article
  13. The Performance ofHuman mutation · 2026
    Article
  14. Article
  15. Article
  16. Article
  17. Article
  18. Article
  19. Calibration of additional computational tools expands ClinGen recommendation options for variant classification with PP3/BP4 criteria.Genetics in medicine : official journal of the American College of Medical Genetics · 2025
    Article
  20. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Malvika TejuraDepartment of Genome Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA.
Shawn FayerDepartment of Genome Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA.
Abbye E McEwenDepartment of Genome Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA; Brotman Baty Institute for Precision Medicine, Seattle, WA 98195, USA; Department of Laboratory Medicine and Pathology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA.
Jake FlynnUniversity of Washington Interdisciplinary Data Science Group, Seattle, WA 98195, USA.
Lea M StaritaDepartment of Genome Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA; Brotman Baty Institute for Precision Medicine, Seattle, WA 98195, USA. Electronic address: lstarita@uw.edu.
Douglas M FowlerDepartment of Genome Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA; Department of Bioengineering, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA; Brotman Baty Institute for Precision Medicine, Seattle, WA 98195, USA. Electronic address: dfowler@uw.edu.

Funding

INTERDISCIPLINARY TRAINING IN GENOMIC SCIENCEST32HG000035 · NHGRI · UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON · PI Bruce Colston Trapnell · 1995 to 2026
$24.2M
Technology to understand genetic variant effects in contextRM1HG010461 · NHGRI · UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON · PI Douglas M Fowler, Bruce Colston Trapnell · 2019 to 2026
$18.9M
The Center for Actionable Variant Analysis; measuring variant function at scaleUM1HG011969 · NHGRI · UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON · PI Douglas M Fowler, Lea Starita · 2021 to 2026
$9.9M
Medical Genetics Training GrantT32GM007454 · NIGMS · UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON · PI Gail Pairitz Jarvik, Andrew Ben Stergachis · 1985 to 2026
$6.9M
Advancing the implementation of variant-level functional data into clinical databases and clinical practiceR01HG013025 · NHGRI · UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON · PI Lea Starita, Andrew Ben Stergachis · 2023 to 2026
$3.1M
NHGRI NIH HHS R01 HG013025NHGRI NIH HHS RM1 HG010461NHGRI NIH HHS T32 HG000035NHGRI NIH HHS UM1 HG011969NIGMS NIH HHS T32 GM007454
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

In silico variant effect predictions are available for nearly all missense variants but played a minimal role in clinical variant classification because they were deemed to provide only supporting evidence. Recently, the ClinGen Sequence Variant Interpretation (SVI) Working Group updated recommendations for variant effect prediction use. By analyzing control pathogenic and benign variants across all genes, they were able to compute evidence strength for predictor score intervals with some intervals generating moderate, strong, or even very strong evidence. However, this genome-wide approach could obscure heterogeneous predictor performance in different genes. We quantified the gene-by-gene performance of two top predictors, REVEL and BayesDel, by analyzing control variants in each predictor score interval in 3,668 disease-relevant genes. Approximately 10% of intervals had sufficient control variants for analysis, and ∼70% of these intervals exceeded the maximum number of incorrect predictions implied by the SVI recommendations. These trending discordant intervals arose owing to the divergence of the gene-specific distribution of predictions from the genome-wide distribution, suggesting that gene-specific calibration is needed in many cases. Approximately 22% of ClinVar missense variants of uncertain significance in genes we analyzed (REVEL = 100,629, BayesDel = 71,928) had predictions in trending discordant intervals. Thus, genome-wide calibrations could result in many variants receiving inappropriate evidence strength. To facilitate a review of the SVI's calibrations, we developed a web application enabling visualization of gene-specific predictions and trending concordant and discordant intervals.

Indexed as

Genome-Wide Association StudyCalibrationDatabases, GeneticGenetic VariationGenome, HumanHumansMutation, MissenseSoftwarecalibrationsvariant effect predictorsvariant interpretation

Identifiers

PMID39173626
PMCPMC11393694

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.