Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39169411›Full record

ArticleJournal of experimental & clinical cancer research : CR2024

Circulating tumour DNA dynamics predict recurrence in stage III melanoma patients receiving neoadjuvant immunotherapy.

Wei Yen Chan, Jenny H Lee, Ashleigh Stewart, Russell J Diefenbach, Maria Gonzalez, Alexander M Menzies, Christian Blank, Richard A Scolyer, Georgina V Long, Helen Rizos

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of experimental & clinical cancer research : CR, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 24 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
24citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

24 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  7. Circulating Tumor DNA as a Biomarker for Melanoma Prognosis and Therapy.American journal of clinical dermatology · 2026
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  12. Leveraging Artificial Intelligence and Large Language Models for Cancer Immunotherapy.Advanced science (Weinheim, Baden-Wurttemberg, Germany) · 2026
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors.

Wei Yen ChanFaculty of Medicine, Health and Human Sciences, Macquarie University, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
Jenny H LeeFaculty of Medicine, Health and Human Sciences, Macquarie University, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
Ashleigh StewartFaculty of Medicine, Health and Human Sciences, Macquarie University, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
Russell J DiefenbachFaculty of Medicine, Health and Human Sciences, Macquarie University, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
Maria GonzalezMelanoma Institute of Australia, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
Alexander M MenziesMelanoma Institute of Australia, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
Christian BlankDepartment of Medical Oncology, Netherlands Cancer Institute (NKI), Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
Richard A ScolyerMelanoma Institute of Australia, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
Georgina V LongMelanoma Institute of Australia, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
Helen RizosFaculty of Medicine, Health and Human Sciences, Macquarie University, Sydney, NSW, Australia. helen.rizos@mq.edu.au.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2094-9198

Funding

CLEARbridge Foundation CLEARbridge FoundationNational Health and Medical Research Council National Health and Medical Research CouncilTour de Cure Tour de Cure
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundNeoadjuvant therapy improves recurrence-free survival (RFS) in resectable stage III cutaneous melanoma. However, accurately predicting individual recurrence risk remains a significant challenge. We investigated circulating tumour DNA (ctDNA) as a biomarker for recurrence in measurable stage IIIB/C melanoma patients undergoing neoadjuvant immunotherapy.

methodsPlasma samples were collected pre-neoadjuvant treatment, pre-surgery and/or six weeks post-surgery from 40 patients enrolled in the OpACIN-neo and PRADO clinical trials. Patients received two cycles of ipilimumab (anti-CTLA-4) and nivolumab (anti-PD-1) before surgery. Cell free DNA (cfDNA) underwent unbiased pre-amplification followed by tumour-informed mutation detection using droplet digital polymerase chain reaction (ddPCR) with the Bio-Rad QX600 PCR system.

resultsPre-treatment ctDNA was detectable in 19/40 (48%) patients. Among these, 17/19 (89%) zero-converted within six weeks of surgery and none recurred. Positive ctDNA post-surgery (N = 4), irrespective of pre-treatment ctDNA status, was 100% predictive of recurrence (sensitivity 44%, specificity 100%). Furthermore, ctDNA cleared prior to surgery in 7/9 (78%) patients who did not recur, warranting further investigation into ctDNA-guided surgical management.

conclusionPost-surgery ctDNA positivity and zero-conversion are highly predictive of recurrence, offering a window for personalised modification of adjuvant therapy.

Indexed as

Circulating Tumor DNAImmunotherapyMelanomaNeoadjuvant TherapyNeoplasm Recurrence, LocalNeoplasm StagingAdultAgedBiomarkers, TumorFemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedSkin NeoplasmsBiomarkers, TumorCirculating Tumor DNACirculating tumour DNANeoadjuvant therapyRecurrence riskStage III melanoma

Identifiers

PMID39169411
PMCPMC11337884

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.