Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39166834›Full record

ArticleConservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology2025

Landscape-scale predictions of future grassland conversion to cropland or development.

Kevin W Barnes, Neal D Niemuth, Rich Iovanna

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Review
  2. Landscape-scale predictions of future grassland conversion to cropland or development.Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology · 2025
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors.

Kevin W BarnesHabitat and Population Evaluation Team, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Hadley, Massachusetts, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-1842-6790
Neal D NiemuthHabitat and Population Evaluation Team, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Bismarck, North Dakota, USA.ORCID 0009-0006-9637-5588
Rich IovannaFarm Production and Conservation, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, District of Columbia, USA.

Funding

United States Department of Agriculture #FBC20IRA0010561
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Grassland conservation planning often focuses on high-risk landscapes, but many grassland conversion models are not designed to optimize conservation planning because they lack multidimensional risk assessments and are misaligned with ecological and conservation delivery scales. To aid grassland conservation planning, we developed landscape-scale models at relevant scales that predict future (2021-2031) total and proportional loss of unprotected grassland to cropland or development. We developed models for 20 ecoregions across the contiguous United States by relating past conversion (2011-2021) to a suite of covariates in random forest regression models and applying the models to contemporary covariates to predict future loss. Overall, grassland loss models performed well, and explanatory power varied spatially across ecoregions (total loss model: weighted group mean R

Indexed as

AgricultureConservation of Natural ResourcesGrasslandModels, TheoreticalUnited Statesagricultura de labranzaconservation planningdiseño sistemático de la conservaciónexpansiónplaneación de la conservaciónriesgorisksprawlsystematic conservation designtillage agriculturevulnerabilidadvulnerability保护规划无序扩张系统性保护设计耕作农业脆弱性风险

Identifiers

PMID39166834
PMCPMC11780205

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.