Wild salmon migration routes influence sea lice infestations: An agent-based model predicting farm-related infestations on juvenile salmon.

This study presents an Agent-Based Model (ABM) simulation to assess the impact of varying migration routes on sea lice (Caligus clemensi) infestation levels in juvenile wild sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) in the Discovery Islands, British Columbia, Canada. This research highlights the importance of migratory routes in determining the extent of exposure to sea lice originating from nearby salmon farms. Three northward out-migration routes were modelled, each exposing the fish to different levels of infestation pressure based on proximity to salmon farms. The ABM incorporates spatially explicit migration patterns of juvenile sockeye salmon using a detailed raster map of the Discovery Islands. Key variables such as swimming speed, progression rate, and infestation levels were integrated into the model, offering a comprehensive analysis of migration and infestation dynamics. The study revealed that infestation rate is highly variable, depending on migration routes. Specifically, salmon traveling longer migration routes with lower infestation pressure may experience higher sea lice loads compared to those on shorter routes with higher infestation pressure. This underscores the role of low infestation pressures and the critical influence of swimming speed, which affects exposure time, and thus infestation rates. Additionally, the study conducted a sensitivity analysis to understand the influence of various parameters on infestation rates. This analysis highlighted the importance of swimming speed and progression rate, particularly in routes closer to the farms. The findings suggest that slower swimming speeds and meandering routes increase exposure to lice, thereby elevating infestation levels. The research contributes to understanding the dynamics of sea lice transmission and its relationship with salmon migration patterns. It underscores the necessity of considering migratory routes and farm proximity in managing and mitigating the impact of sea lice infestation on wild salmon populations. This study's insights are crucial for developing strategies to balance aquaculture practices with the conservation of wild salmon.