Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39159316›Full record

ReviewAnnals of the New York Academy of Sciences2024

NPCC4: Tail risk, climate drivers of extreme heat, and new methods for extreme event projections.

Luis Ortiz, Christian Braneon, Radley Horton, Daniel Bader, Philip Orton, Vivien Gornitz, Bernice Rosenzweig, Timon McPhearson, Lauren Smalls-Mantey, Hadia Sheerazi and 9 more

Abstract readReview
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Review in Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
0citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

0 citing papers in PubMed.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

19 authors.

Luis OrtizDepartment of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences, George Mason University, Fairfax, Virginia, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-4248-6374
Christian BraneonCUNY Institute for Demographic Research (CIDR), City University of New York, New York City, New York, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-1878-1397
Radley HortonColumbia Climate School, Columbia University, New York City, New York, USA.
Daniel BaderNASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York City, New York, USA.
Philip OrtonStevens Institute of Technology, Hoboken, New Jersey, USA.
Vivien GornitzNASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York City, New York, USA.
Bernice RosenzweigDepartment of Environmental Science, Sarah Lawrence College, Bronxville, New York, USA.
Timon McPhearsonUrban Systems Lab, The New School, New York City, New York, USA.
Lauren Smalls-ManteyNew York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene, New York City, New York, USA.
Hadia SheeraziRocky Mountain Institute, New York City, New York, USA.
Franco A MontaltoDepartment of Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering, Drexel University, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA.
Mobin Rahimi GolkhandanDepartment of Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering, Drexel University, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA.
Colin EvansEarth and Atmospheric Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York, USA.
Arthur DeGaetanoEarth and Atmospheric Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York, USA.
Evan MallenUrban Climate Lab, School of City and Regional Planning, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia, USA.
Latonya CarterDepartment of Geography and Geoinformation Science, George Mason University, Fairfax, Virginia, USA.
Kathryn McConnellDepartment of Sociology, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, CA.
Talea MayoDepartment of Mathematics, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, USA.
Maya BuchananWSP USA, Portland, Oregon, USA.

Funding

Science/Technical CoreP2CHD041020 · NICHD · BROWN UNIVERSITY · PI ZHENCHAO QIAN · 2016 to 2026
$7.6M
AXA Research FundNational Science Foundation 1444755National Science Foundation 1927167National Science Foundation 193493National Science Foundation Human-Environment and Geographical Sciences (HEGS) and Sociology Programs 2117405NICHD NIH HHS P2C HD041020
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

We summarize historic New York City (NYC) climate change trends and provide the latest scientific analyses on projected future changes based on a range of global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Building on previous NPCC assessment reports, we describe new methods used to develop the projections of record for sea level rise, temperature, and precipitation for NYC, across multiple emissions pathways and analyze the issue of the "hot models" associated with the 6th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and their potential impact on NYC's climate projections. We describe the state of the science on temperature variability within NYC and explain both the large-scale and regional dynamics that lead to extreme heat events, as well as the local physical drivers that lead to inequitable distributions of exposure to extreme heat. We identify three areas of tail risk and potential for its mischaracterization, including the physical processes of extreme events and the effects of a changing climate. Finally, we review opportunities for future research, with a focus on the hot model problem and the intersection of spatial resolution of projections with gaps in knowledge in the impacts of the climate signal on intraurban heat and heat exposure.

Indexed as

Climate ChangeExtreme HeatClimate ModelsForecastingGreenhouse GasesHot TemperatureHumansNew York CitySea Level RiseGreenhouse Gasesclimate justice and equityclimate riskclimate scienceextreme eventstail risk

Identifiers

PMID39159316
PMCPMC11438572

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.