Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39152187›Full record

ArticleScientific reports2024

A comparative analysis of classical and machine learning methods for forecasting TB/HIV co-infection.

André Abade, Lucas Faria Porto, Alessandro Rolim Scholze, Daniely Kuntath, Nathan da Silva Barros, Thaís Zamboni Berra, Antonio Carlos Vieira Ramos, Ricardo Alexandre Arcêncio, Josilene Dália Alves

Abstract readComparative Study
In one paragraph

Article in Scientific reports, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
11citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

11 citing papers in PubMed.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

André AbadeFederal Institute of Education, Science and Technology of Mato Grosso, Department of Computer Science, Campus Barra do Garças, Barra do Garças, Mato Grosso, Brazil. andre.abade@ifmt.edu.br.
Lucas Faria Porto *Department of Health Sciences, Barra do Garças, Campus Araguaia, Federal University of Mato Grosso, Cuiabá, Mato Grosso, Brazil.
Alessandro Rolim Scholze *State University of Northern Paraná, Luiz Meneghel Campus, Bandeirantes, Paraná, Brazil.
Daniely Kuntath *Department of Health Sciences, Barra do Garças, Campus Araguaia, Federal University of Mato Grosso, Cuiabá, Mato Grosso, Brazil.
Nathan da Silva Barros *Department of Health Sciences, Barra do Garças, Campus Araguaia, Federal University of Mato Grosso, Cuiabá, Mato Grosso, Brazil.
Thaís Zamboni Berra *University of São Paulo College of Nursing at Ribeirão Preto, Ribeirão Preto, São Paulo, Brazil.
Antonio Carlos Vieira Ramos *Nursing Department, University of the State of Minas Gerais, Passos, Minas Gerais, Brazil.
Ricardo Alexandre Arcêncio *University of São Paulo College of Nursing at Ribeirão Preto, Ribeirão Preto, São Paulo, Brazil.
Josilene Dália Alves *Department of Health Sciences, Barra do Garças, Campus Araguaia, Federal University of Mato Grosso, Cuiabá, Mato Grosso, Brazil.

Funding

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico 445458/2023-2Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de Mato Grosso , Brasil 000087/2023
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

TB/HIV coinfection poses a complex public health challenge. Accurate forecasting of future trends is essential for efficient resource allocation and intervention strategy development. This study compares classical statistical and machine learning models to predict TB/HIV coinfection cases stratified by gender and the general populations. We analyzed time series data using exponential smoothing and ARIMA to establish the baseline trend and seasonality. Subsequently, machine learning models (SVR, XGBoost, LSTM, CNN, GRU, CNN-GRU, and CNN-LSTM) were employed to capture the complex dynamics and inherent non-linearities of TB/HIV coinfection data. Performance metrics (MSE, MAE, sMAPE) and the Diebold-Mariano test were used to evaluate the model performance. Results revealed that Deep Learning models, particularly Bidirectional LSTM and CNN-LSTM, significantly outperformed classical methods. This demonstrates the effectiveness of Deep Learning for modeling TB/HIV coinfection time series and generating more accurate forecasts.

Indexed as

CoinfectionForecastingHIV InfectionsMachine LearningTuberculosisDeep LearningFemaleHumansMale

Identifiers

PMID39152187
PMCPMC11329657

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.