Determining the efficacy of visual inspections at detecting non-biosecurity-compliant goods.

Examination of imported commodities by trained inspectors searching for pest organisms is a common practice that phytosanitary regulatory agencies use to mitigate biosecurity risks along trade pathways. To investigate the effects of target size and color on the efficacy of these visual assessments, we affixed square decals to polystyrene models of mandarins. Sample units of 100 model fruit containing up to 10 marked models were examined by inspectors. Six sizes in six shades of brown were tested across two prevalence levels. The experiment consisted of five inspection rounds where 11 inspectors examined 77 sample units within an allocated time. The probability that decals were detected increased with mark size and color contrast. Smaller, low-contrast marks were mainly missed. The prevalence rate did not affect the detectability. Through the experiment, the false-positive rate dropped from 6% to 3%, whereas false-negative rates were constant throughout. Large, dark targets were readily found with a mean recall of >90%, whereas small, pale marks had a mean recall of 9%. Increased experience made inspectors more competent at recognizing decals, reducing the false positive rate. However, constant false-negative rates indicate that experience did not prevent inspectors from overlooking targets they could not perceive.