ArticleFrontiers in public health2024
Application of improved harmonic Poisson segmented regression model in evaluating the effectiveness of Kala-Azar intervention in Yangquan City, China.
Article in Frontiers in public health, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.
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1 citing paper in PubMed.
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9 authors.
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Abstract
Background: The Centre for Disease Control and Prevention in Yangquan, China, has taken a series of preventive and control measures in response to the increasing trend of Kala-Azar. In response, we propose a new model to more scientifically evaluate the effectiveness of these interventions. Methods: We obtained the incidence data of Kala-Azar from 2017 to 2021 from the Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in Yangquan. We constructed Poisson segmented regression model, harmonic Poisson segmental regression model, and improved harmonic Poisson segmented regression model, and used the three models to explain the intervention effect, respectively. Finally, we selected the optimal model by comparing the fitting effects of the three models. Results: The primary analysis showed an underlying upward trend of Kala-Azar before intervention [incidence rate ratio (IRR): 1.045, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.027-1.063, Conclusion: In the long term, the intervention measures taken by the Yangquan CDC can well curb the upward trend of Kala-Azar. The improved harmonic Poisson segmented regression model has higher fitting performance, which can provide a certain scientific reference for the evaluation of the intervention effect of seasonal infectious diseases.
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