A prediction model based on computed tomography characteristics for identifying malignant from benign sub-centimeter solid pulmonary nodules.

Background: Distinguishing benign from malignant sub-centimeter solid pulmonary nodules (SSPNs) continues to be challenging in clinical practice. Earlier diagnosis is crucial for improving patient survival and prognosis. This study aimed to investigate the risk factors of malignant SSPNs and establish and validate a prediction model based on computed tomography (CT) characteristics to assist in their early diagnosis. Methods: A total of 261 consecutive participants with 261 SSPNs were retrospectively recruited between January 2012 and July 2023 from National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College (Center 1), including 161 malignant lesions and 100 benign lesions. Patients were randomly assigned to the training set (n=183) and validation set (n=78) according to a 7:3 ratio. Malignant nodules were confirmed by pathology; and benign nodules were confirmed by follow-up or pathology. Clinical data and CT features were collected to estimate the independent predictors of malignancy of SSPN with multivariate logistic analysis. A clinical prediction model was subsequently established by logistic regression. Furthermore, an additional 69 consecutive patients with 69 SSPNs from The Fourth Hospital of Hebei Medical University (Center 2) between January 2022 and December 2022 were retrospectively included as an external cohort to validate the predictive efficacy of the model. The performance of the prediction model was assessed by sensitivity, specificity, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Results: There were 113 (61.7%), 48 (61.5%) and 28 (40.6%) malignant SSPNs in the training, internal and external validation sets, respectively. Multivariate logistic analysis revealed four independent predictors of malignant SSPNs: tumor-lung interface (P=0.002), spiculation (P=0.04), air bronchogram (P=0.047), and invisible at the mediastinal window (P=0.003). The area under the curve (AUC) for the prediction model in the training set was 0.875 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.818, 0.933]; and the sensitivity and specificity were 94.7% and 68.6%, respectively. The AUCs in the internal and external validation set were (0.781; 95% CI: 0.664, 0.897) and (0.873; 95% CI: 0.791, 0.955), respectively; the sensitivity and specificity were 66.7% and 83.3% for the internal validation data, and 100.0% and 61.0% for the external validation data, respectively. Conclusions: The prediction model based on CT characteristics could be helpful for distinguishing malignant SSPNs from benign ones.