Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39134401›Full record

ArticleTobacco control2025

Supply and demand effects between tobacco retailer density and smoking prevalence.

Shelley D Golden, Tzy-Mey Kuo, Todd Combs, Amanda Y Kong, Kurt M Ribisl, Chris D Baggett

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Tobacco control, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
6citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

6 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. The interaction of tobacco retailer density and rurality with tobacco use prevalence in Kentucky.The Journal of rural health : official journal of the American Rural Health Association and the National Rural Health Care Association · 2026
    Article
  5. Tobacco retailer density and rurality across four US states: California, Connecticut, North Carolina, and Ohio.The Journal of rural health : official journal of the American Rural Health Association and the National Rural Health Care Association · 2025
    Article
  6. Residential Segregation and Epigenetic Age Acceleration Among Older-Age Black and White Americans.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2025
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Shelley D GoldenHealth Behavior, The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA sgolden@email.unc.edu.ORCID 0000-0002-3283-542X
Tzy-Mey KuoLineberger Comprehensive Cancer Center, The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA.
Todd CombsCenter for Public Health Systems Science, Brown School, Washington University in St Louis, St Louis, Missouri, USA.
Amanda Y KongDepartment of Social Sciences and Health Policy, Division of Public Health Sciences, Wake Forest University School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, North Carolina, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-8361-7342
Kurt M RibislHealth Behavior, The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-3318-8524
Chris D BaggettLineberger Comprehensive Cancer Center, The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-9563-203X

Funding

Tissue Pathology Shared ResourceP30CA225520 · NCI · UNIVERSITY OF OKLAHOMA HLTH SCIENCES CTR · PI ROBERT S. MANNEL · 2018 to 2026
$27.1M
Project 3: Tobacco Town Policy ModelingP01CA225597 · NCI · UNIV OF NORTH CAROLINA CHAPEL HILL · PI HENRIKSEN, LISA ANNE, LUKE, DOUGLAS A · 2018 to 2023
$11.5M
NCI NIH HHS P01 CA225597NCI NIH HHS P30 CA225520
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectivePlaces with more tobacco retailers have higher smoking prevalence levels, but whether this is because retailers locate where people who smoke live or whether tobacco availability prompts tobacco use is unknown. In this study, we compare the role of consumer demand with that of tobacco supply in longitudinal, area-based associations of tobacco retailer density with smoking prevalence.

methodsWe merged annual adult smoking prevalence estimates derived from the USA Behavioural Risk Factor Surveillance System data with annual county estimates of tobacco retailer density calculated from the National Establishment Time Series data for 3080 counties between 2000 and 2010. We analysed relationships between retailer density and smoking in 3080 counties, using random intercept cross-lagged panel models and employing two measures of tobacco retailer density capturing the number of likely tobacco retailers in a county divided by either the population or land area.

resultsBoth density models provided evidence of significant demand and supply effects; in the population-based model, the association of smoking prevalence in 1 year with tobacco retailer density in the next year (standardised coefficient=0.038, p<0.01) was about double the association between tobacco retailer density with subsequent smoking prevalence (0.017, p<0.01). The reverse was true in the land area-based model, where the supply effect (0.042, p<0.01) was more than 10 times stronger than the demand effect (0.003, p<0.01).

conclusionsPolicies that restrict access to retail tobacco have the potential to reduce smoking prevalence, but pairing such policies with interventions to reduce consumer demand remains important.

Indexed as

CommerceSmokingTobacco ProductsAdultBehavioral Risk Factor Surveillance SystemHumansLongitudinal StudiesPrevalenceUnited StatesEnvironmentPublic policyTobacco industry

Identifiers

PMID39134401
PMCPMC11814288

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.