ArticleBMC neurology2024
Development of a short-term prognostic model for anti-N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor encephalitis in Chinese patients.
Article in BMC neurology, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.
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Who cites it
4 citing papers in PubMed.
- A predictive nomogram for relapse risk in children with autoimmune encephalitis.Irish journal of medical science · 2026Article
- Role of serum complement C3 in blood-brain barrier injury and prognosis of anti-NMDAR encephalitis.BMC neurology · 2026Article
- Machine Learning and Shapley Additive Explanations Value Integration for Predicting the Prognostic of Anti-N-Methyl-D-Aspartate Receptor Encephalitis: Model Development and Evaluation Study.JMIR medical informatics · 2025Article
- Risk factors for central hypoventilation in anti-Frontiers in immunology · 2025Article
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Abstract
backgroundRecognizing the predictors of poor short-term prognosis after first-line immunotherapy in patients with anti-N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor (anti-NMDAR) encephalitis is essential for individualized treatment strategy. The objective of this study was to ascertain the factors that forecast short-term prognosis in patients with anti-NMDAR encephalitis, develop a prognostic prediction model, and authenticate its efficacy in an external validation cohort. Further, all patients were followed-up long-term to assess the factors of long-term outcome and relapses.
methodsA prospective enrollment of patients diagnosed with anti-NMDAR encephalitis was conducted across five clinical centers in China from June 2014 to Mar 2022. The enrolled patients were divided into the derivation and validation sets based on enrollment time. The short-term prognostic model was visualized using a nomogram. Further, all patients were followed-up long-term to assess the factors of long-term outcome.
resultsThis study found that poor short-term prognosis was a risk factor for poor long-term outcome (6-month prognosis, OR 29.792, 95%CI 6.507-136.398, p < 0.001; 12-month prognosis, OR 15.756, 95%CI 3.384-73.075, p < 0.001; 24-month prognosis, OR 5.500, 95%CI 1.045-28.955, p = 0.044). Abnormal behavior or cognitive dysfunction (OR 8.57, 95%CI 1.48-49.79, p = 0.017), consciousness impairment (OR19.32, 95%CI 3.03-123.09, p = 0.002), autonomic dysfunction or central hypoventilation (OR 5.66, 95%CI 1.25-25.75, p = 0.025), CSF pleocytosis (OR 4.33, 95%CI 1.48-12.65, p = 0.007), abnormal EEG (OR 5.48, 95% CI 1.09-27.54, p = 0.039) were independent predictors for a poor short-term prognosis after first-line immunotherapy. A nomogram that incorporated those factors showed good discrimination and calibration abilities. The area under the curve (AUC) for the prognostic model were 0.866 (95%CI: 0.798-0.934) with a sensitivity of 0.761 and specificity of 0.869.
conclusionWe established and validated a prognostic model that can provide individual prediction of short-term prognosis after first-line immunotherapy for patients with anti-NMDAR encephalitis. This practical prognostic model may help neurologists to predict the short-term prognosis early and potentially assist in adjusting appropriate treatment timely.
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