Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39122479›Full record

ArticleBMJ mental health2024

Suicide deaths associated with climate change-induced heat anomalies in Australia: a time series regression analysis.

Lucas Hertzog, Fiona Charlson, Petra Tschakert, Geoffrey G Morgan, Richard Norman, Gavin Pereira, Ivan C Hanigan

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Article in BMJ mental health, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
5citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

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3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

5 citing papers in PubMed.

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4 · The record

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PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Lucas HertzogSchool of Population Health, Curtin University, Perth, Western Australia, Australia lucas.hertzog@curtin.edu.au.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9881-3648
Fiona CharlsonQueensland Centre of Mental Health Research and School of Public Health, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.
Petra TschakertSchool of Media, Creative Arts and Social Inquiry, Curtin University, Perth, Western Australia, Australia.
Geoffrey G MorganHealthy Environments and Lives (HEAL) National Research Network, Perth, Western Australia, Australia.
Richard NormanHealthy Environments and Lives (HEAL) National Research Network, Perth, Western Australia, Australia.
Gavin PereiraSchool of Population Health, Curtin University, Perth, Western Australia, Australia.
Ivan C HaniganSchool of Population Health, Curtin University, Perth, Western Australia, Australia.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundAlthough environmental determinants play an important role in suicide mortality, the quantitative influence of climate change-induced heat anomalies on suicide deaths remains relatively underexamined.

objectiveThe objective is to quantify the impact of climate change-induced heat anomalies on suicide deaths in Australia from 2000 to 2019.

methodsA time series regression analysis using a generalised additive model was employed to explore the potentially non-linear relationship between temperature anomalies and suicide, incorporating structural variables such as sex, age, season and geographic region. Suicide deaths data were obtained from the Australian National Mortality Database, and gridded climate data of gridded surface temperatures were sourced from the Australian Gridded Climate Dataset.

findingsHeat anomalies in the study period were between 0.02°C and 2.2°C hotter than the historical period due to climate change. Our analysis revealed that approximately 0.5% (264 suicides, 95% CI 257 to 271) of the total 50 733 suicides within the study period were attributable to climate change-induced heat anomalies. Death counts associated with heat anomalies were statistically significant (p value 0.03) among men aged 55+ years old. Seasonality was a significant factor, with increased deaths during spring and summer. The relationship between high heat anomalies and suicide deaths varied across different demographic segments. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: This study highlights the measurable impact of climate change-induced heat anomalies on suicide deaths in Australia, emphasising the need for increased climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies in public health planning and suicide prevention efforts focusing on older adult men. The findings underscore the importance of considering environmental factors in addition to individual-level factors in understanding and reducing suicide mortality.

Indexed as

Climate ChangeHot TemperatureSuicideAdolescentAdultAgedAustraliaFemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedRegression AnalysisSeasonsYoung Adultdata interpretation, statisticalsuicide & self-harm

Identifiers

PMID39122479
PMCPMC11409306

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.