ArticleJCO clinical cancer informatics2024
Clinical Calculator for Predicting Freedom From Recurrence After Resection of Stage I-III Colon Cancer in Patients With Microsatellite Instability.
Article in JCO clinical cancer informatics, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.
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Who cites it
2 citing papers in PubMed.
- Risk of late recurrence of colorectal and breast cancer among older long-term cancer survivors.JNCI cancer spectrum · 2026Article
- Neoadjuvant Immunotherapy Followed by Surgery Compared with Upfront Surgery Alone in Operable Colon Cancer with Deficient Mismatch Repair: Modeling Oncological Outcomes and Numbers Needed to Treat.Annals of surgical oncology · 2025Article
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Authors and funding
16 authors.
Funding
Abstract
purposeOutcome for patients with nonmetastatic, microsatellite instability (MSI) colon cancer is favorable: however, high-risk cohorts exist. This study was aimed at developing and validating a nomogram model to predict freedom from recurrence (FFR) for patients with resected MSI colon cancer. PATIENTS AND
methodsData from patients who underwent curative resection of stage I, II, or III MSI colon cancer in 2014-2021 (model training cohort, 384 patients, 33 events; median follow-up, 38.8 months) were retrospectively collected from institutional databases. Variables associated with recurrence in multivariable analysis were selected for inclusion in the clinical calculator. The calculator's predictive accuracy was measured with the concordance index and validated using data from patients who underwent treatment for MSI colon cancer in 2007-2013 (validation cohort, 164 patients, eight events; median follow-up, 84.8 months).
resultsT category and number of positive lymph nodes were significantly associated with recurrence in multivariable analysis and were selected for inclusion in the clinical calculator. The calculator's concordance index for FFR in the model training cohort was 0.812 (95% CI, 0.742 to 0.873), compared with 0.759 (95% CI, 0.683 to 0.840) for the staging schema of the eighth edition of the American Joint Committee on Cancer Staging Manual. The concordance index for the validation cohort was 0.744 (95% CI, 0.666 to 0.822), confirming robust predictive accuracy.
conclusionAlthough in general patients with nonmetastatic MSI colon cancer had favorable outcome, patients with advanced T category and multiple metastatic lymph nodes had higher risk of recurrence. The clinical calculator identified patients with MSI colon cancer at high risk for recurrence, and this could inform surveillance strategies. In addition, the model could be used in trial design to identify patients suitable for novel adjuvant therapy.
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