ArticleFrontiers in veterinary science2024
Identifying risk clusters for African swine fever in Korea by developing statistical models.
Article in Frontiers in veterinary science, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.
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Who cites it
3 citing papers in PubMed.
- Modelling African Swine Fever Transmission and Epidemiology: A Scoping Review of Mechanistic, Statistical, and Machine Learning Approaches.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2026Review
- Comprehensive molecular profiling of the African swine fever virus in Korean wild boars between 2019 and 2024.Veterinary research · 2026Article
- Modeling the Spatiotemporal Spread and Control of African Swine Fever in the Republic of Korea Using a Patch-Based Stochastic Framework.Transboundary and emerging diseases · 2026Article
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Introduction: African swine fever (ASF) is a disease with a high mortality rate and high transmissibility. Identifying high-risk clusters and understanding the transmission characteristics of ASF in advance are essential for preventing its spread in a short period of time. This study investigated the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of ASF in the Republic of Korea by analyzing surveillance data on wild boar carcasses. Methods: We observed a distinct annual propagation pattern, with the occurrence of ASF-infected carcasses trending southward over time. We developed a rank-based statistical model to evaluate risk by estimating the average weekly number of carcasses per district over time, allowing us to analyze and identify risk clusters of ASF. We conducted an analysis to identify risk clusters for two distinct periods, Late 2022 and Early 2023, utilizing data from ASF-infected carcasses. To address the underestimation of risk and observation error due to incomplete surveillance data, we estimated the number of ASF-infected individuals and accounted for observation error via different surveillance intensities. Results: As a result, in Late 2022, the risk clusters identified by observed and estimated number of ASF-infected carcasses were almost identical, particularly in the northwestern Gyeongbuk region, north Chungbuk region, and southwestern Gangwon region. In Early 2023, we observed a similar pattern with numerous risk clusters identified in the same regions as in Late 2022. Discussion: This approach enhances our understanding of ASF spatial dynamics. Additionally, it contributes to the epidemiology and study of animal infectious diseases by highlighting areas requiring urgent and focused intervention. By providing crucial data for the targeted allocation of resources for disease management and preventive measures, our findings lay vital groundwork for improving ASF management strategies, ultimately aiding in the containment and control of this devastating disease.
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