ArticleBMC infectious diseases2024
Modeling tuberculosis transmission flow in China, 2010-2012.
Article in BMC infectious diseases, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Active Case Finding for Tuberculosis in Migrants: a Systematic Review.Medical archives (Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina) · 2024Pooled it
- Spatial heterogeneity and drivers of pulmonary tuberculosis in Guangzhou: a street-level analysis of residents and migrant subgroups from 2015 to 2023.BMC public health · 2026Article
- Epidemiological characteristics of tuberculosis among migrant populations and key predictors of migratory cases in Zhejiang Province.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Influence of meteorological factors on scrub typhus in Southeast China: a study across 100 districts in Jiangxi Province.Tropical medicine and health · 2025Article
- Observational
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8 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundChina has the third largest number of TB cases in the world, and the average annual floating population in China is more than 200 million, the increasing floating population across regions has a tremendous potential for spreading infectious diseases, however, the role of increasing massive floating population in tuberculosis transmission is yet unclear in China.
methods29,667 tuberculosis flow data were derived from the new smear-positive pulmonary tuberculosis cases in China. Spatial variation of TB transmission was measured by geodetector q-statistic and spatial interaction model was used to model the tuberculosis flow and the regional socioeconomic factors.
resultsTuberculosis transmission flow presented spatial heterogeneity. The Pearl River Delta in southern China and the Yangtze River Delta along China's east coast presented as the largest destination and concentration areas of tuberculosis inflows. Socioeconomic factors were determinants of tuberculosis flow. Some impact factors showed different spatial associations with tuberculosis transmission flow. A 10% increase in per capita GDP was associated with 10.2% in 2010 or 2.1% in 2012 decrease in tuberculosis outflows from the provinces of origin, and 1.2% in 2010 or 0.5% increase in tuberculosis inflows to the destinations and 18.9% increase in intraprovincial flow in 2012. Per capita net income of rural households and per capita disposable income of urban households were positively associated with tuberculosis flows. A 10% increase in per capita net income corresponded to 14.0% in 2010 or 3.6% in 2012 increase in outflows from the origin, 44.2% in 2010 or 12.8% increase in inflows to the destinations and 47.9% increase in intraprovincial flows in 2012. Tuberculosis incidence had positive impacts on tuberculosis flows. A 10% increase in the number of tuberculosis cases corresponded to 2.2% in 2010 or 1.1% in 2012 increase in tuberculosis inflows to the destinations, 5.2% in 2010 or 2.0% in 2012 increase in outflows from the origins, 11.5% in 2010 or 2.2% in 2012 increase in intraprovincial flows.
conclusionsTuberculosis flows had clear spatial stratified heterogeneity and spatial autocorrelation, regional socio-economic characteristics had diverse and statistically significant effects on tuberculosis flows in the origin and destination, and income factor played an important role among the determinants.
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