Analyzing the impact of heavy metal exposure on osteoarthritis and rheumatoid arthritis: an approach based on interpretable machine learning.

Introduction: This investigation leverages advanced machine learning (ML) techniques to dissect the complex relationship between heavy metal exposure and its impacts on osteoarthritis (OA) and rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Utilizing a comprehensive dataset from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) spanning from 2003 to 2020, this study aims to elucidate the roles specific heavy metals play in the incidence and differentiation of OA and RA. Methods: Employing a phased ML strategy that encompasses a range of methodologies, including LASSO regression and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP), our analytical framework integrates demographic, laboratory, and questionnaire data. Thirteen distinct ML models were applied across seven methodologies to enhance the predictability and interpretability of clinical outcomes. Each phase of model development was meticulously designed to progressively refine the algorithm's performance. Results: The results reveal significant associations between certain heavy metals and an increased risk of arthritis. The phased ML approach enabled the precise identification of key predictors and their contributions to disease outcomes. Discussion: These findings offer new insights into potential pathways for early detection, prevention, and management strategies for arthritis associated with environmental exposures. By improving the interpretability of ML models, this research provides a potent tool for clinicians and researchers, facilitating a deeper understanding of the environmental determinants of arthritis.