ArticleMalaria journal2024
Spatiotemporal patterns and association with climate for malaria elimination in Lao PDR: a hierarchical modelling analysis with two-step Bayesian model selection.
Article in Malaria journal, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.
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4 citing papers in PubMed.
- Spatiotemporal epidemiology and associated risk factors of tuberculosis incidence and mortality in Indonesia 2017-2022: a nationwide space-time hierarchical analysis.Population health metrics · 2026Article
- Spatiotemporal epidemiology and hierarchical analysis of suicide mortality and associated risk factors in Thailand using national surveillance data during 1997-2021.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Global spatiotemporal analysis of suicide epidemiology and risk factor associations from 2000 to 2019 using Bayesian space time hierarchical modeling.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Comparative evaluation of spatiotemporal methods for effective dengue cluster detection with a case study of national surveillance data in Thailand.Scientific reports · 2024Article
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9 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundThe government of Lao PDR has increased efforts to control malaria transmission in order to reach its national elimination goal by 2030. Weather can influence malaria transmission dynamics and should be considered when assessing the impact of elimination interventions but this relationship has not been well characterized in Lao PDR. This study examined the space-time association between climate variables and Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax malaria incidence from 2010 to 2022.
methodsSpatiotemporal Bayesian modelling was used to investigate the monthly relationship, and model selection criteria were used to evaluate the performance of the models and weather variable specifications. As the malaria control and elimination situation was spatially and temporally dynamic during the study period, the association was examined annually at the provincial level.
resultsMalaria incidence decreased from 2010 to 2022 and was concentrated in the southern regions for both P. falciparum and P. vivax. Rainfall and maximum humidity were identified as most strongly associated with malaria during the study period. Rainfall was associated with P. falciparum incidence in the north and central regions during 2010-2011, and with P. vivax incidence in the north and central regions during 2012-2015. Maximum humidity was persistently associated with P. falciparum and P. vivax incidence in the south.
conclusionsMalaria remains prevalent in Lao PDR, particularly in the south, and the relationship with weather varies between regions but was strongest for rainfall and maximum humidity for both species. During peak periods with suitable weather conditions, vector control activities and raising public health awareness on the proper usage of intervention measures, such as indoor residual spraying and personal protection, should be prioritized.
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