Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39095415›Full record

ArticleNature communications2024

The 4.2 ka event is not remarkable in the context of Holocene climate variability.

Nicholas P McKay, Darrell S Kaufman, Stéphanie H Arcusa, Hannah R Kolus, David C Edge, Michael P Erb, Chris L Hancock, Cody C Routson, Maurycy Żarczyński, Leah P Marshall and 2 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature communications, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 13 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
13citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

13 citing papers in PubMed.

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  10. Human and climate impacts on the alpine Critical Zone over the past 10,000 y.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025
    Article
  11. Article
  12. Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

12 authors.

Nicholas P McKayNorthern Arizona University, School of Earth and Sustainability, Flagstaff, AZ, USA. nicholas.mckay@nau.edu.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3598-5113
Darrell S KaufmanNorthern Arizona University, School of Earth and Sustainability, Flagstaff, AZ, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7572-1414
Stéphanie H ArcusaNorthern Arizona University, School of Earth and Sustainability, Flagstaff, AZ, USA.
Hannah R KolusNorthern Arizona University, School of Earth and Sustainability, Flagstaff, AZ, USA.
David C EdgeNorthern Arizona University, School of Earth and Sustainability, Flagstaff, AZ, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6938-2850
Michael P ErbNorthern Arizona University, School of Earth and Sustainability, Flagstaff, AZ, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1187-952X
Chris L HancockNorthern Arizona University, School of Earth and Sustainability, Flagstaff, AZ, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7273-202X
Cody C RoutsonNorthern Arizona University, School of Earth and Sustainability, Flagstaff, AZ, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8694-7809
Maurycy ŻarczyńskiNorthern Arizona University, School of Earth and Sustainability, Flagstaff, AZ, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2989-8152
Leah P MarshallNorthern Arizona University, School of Earth and Sustainability, Flagstaff, AZ, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4853-4784
Georgia K RobertsNorthern Arizona University, School of Earth and Sustainability, Flagstaff, AZ, USA.
Frank TellesNorthern Arizona University, School of Earth and Sustainability, Flagstaff, AZ, USA.

Funding

National Science Foundation (NSF) 1929460
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The "4.2 ka event" is a commonly described abrupt climate excursion that occurred about 4200 years ago. However, the extent to which this event is coherent across regional and larger scales is unclear. To objectively assess climate excursions in the Holocene we compile 1142 paleoclimate datasets that span all continents and oceans and include a wide variety of archive and proxy types. We analyze these data to determine the timing, significance and spatial imprint of climate excursions using an objective method that quantifies local, regional and global significance. Site-level excursions in temperature and hydroclimate are common throughout the Holocene, but significant global-scale excursions are rare. The most prominent excursion occurred 8200 years ago, when cold and dry conditions formed a large, significant excursion centered in the North Atlantic. We find additional significant excursions between 1600 and 1000 years ago, which agree with tree-ring data and annual-scale paleoclimate reconstructions, adding confidence and context to our findings. In contrast, although some datasets show significant climate excursions 4200 years ago, they do not occur in large, coherent spatial regions. Consequently, like most other periods in the Holocene, the "4.2 ka event" is not a globally significant climate excursion.

Identifiers

PMID39095415
PMCPMC11297131

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.