ArticleThe Lancet. Public health2024
The long-term effects of domestic and international tuberculosis service improvements on tuberculosis trends within the USA: a mathematical modelling study.
Article in The Lancet. Public health, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.
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3 citing papers in PubMed.
- Projected Effects of Changing Global Tuberculosis Epidemiology on Mycobacterium tuberculosis Immunoreactivity Prevalence, 2024-2050.Emerging infectious diseases · 2026Article
- Global and Regional Burden of Seborrheic Dermatitis: Trends in Incidence and DALYs, 1990-2021.Clinical, cosmetic and investigational dermatology · 2025Article
- A Decade of the National Center for HIV, Viral Hepatitis, STD, and TB Prevention's Epidemiologic and Economic Modeling Agreement.Public health reports (Washington, D.C. : 1974)Article
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11 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundFor settings with low tuberculosis incidence, disease elimination is a long-term goal. We investigated pathways to tuberculosis pre-elimination (incidence <1·0 cases per 100 000 people) and elimination (incidence <0·1 cases per 100 000 people) in the USA, where incidence was estimated at 2·9 per 100 000 people in 2023.
methodsUsing a mathematical modelling framework, we simulated how US tuberculosis incidence could be affected by changes in tuberculosis services in the countries of origin for future migrants to the USA, as well as changes in tuberculosis services inside the USA. To do so, we used a linked set of transmission dynamic models, calibrated to demographic and epidemiological data for each setting. We constructed intervention scenarios representing improvements in tuberculosis services internationally and within the USA, individually and in combination, plus a base-case scenario representing continuation of current services. We simulated health and economic outcomes until 2100, using a Bayesian approach to quantify uncertainty in these outcomes.
findingsUnder the base-case scenario, US tuberculosis incidence was projected to decline to 1·8 cases per 100 000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1·5-2·1) in the total population by 2050. Intervention scenarios produced substantial reductions in tuberculosis incidence, with the combination of all domestic and international interventions projected to achieve pre-elimination by 2033 (95% UI 2031-2037). Compared with the base-case scenario, this combination of interventions could avert 101 000 tuberculosis cases (95% UI 84 000-120 000) and 13 300 tuberculosis deaths (95% UI 10 500-16 300) in the USA from 2025 to 2050. Tuberculosis elimination was not projected before 2100.
interpretationStrengthening tuberculosis services domestically, promoting the development of more effective technologies and interventions, and supporting tuberculosis programmes in countries with a high tuberculosis burden are key strategies for accelerating progress towards tuberculosis elimination in the USA.
fundingUS Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
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