ArticleNeurology and therapy2024
Predicted Expenditure for Prescription Drugs for Multiple Sclerosis in the Italian Market Between 2023 and 2028: Results of the Oracle Project.
Article in Neurology and therapy, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.
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Who cites it
2 citing papers in PubMed.
- Horizon Scanning of Multiple Sclerosis Expenditure in Italy (2025-2029): Updated Insights from the Oracle Model.Neurology and therapy · 2026Article
- Exploring Pain on Social Media: Observational Study on Perceptions and Discussions of Chronic Pain Conditions.JMIR infodemiology · 2025Observational
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Authors and funding
24 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
introductionMultiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic neurodegenerative disease that leads to impaired cognitive function and accumulation of disability, with significant socioeconomic burden. Serious unmet need in the context of managing MS has given rise to ongoing research efforts, leading to the launch of new drugs planned for the near future, and subsequent concerns about the sustainability of healthcare systems. This study assessed the changes in the Italian MS market and their impact on the expenditures of the Italian National Healthcare Service between 2023 and 2028.
methodsA horizon-scanning model was developed to estimate annual expenditure from 2023 to 2028. Annual expenditure for MS was calculated by combining the number of patients treated with each product (clinical inputs) and the yearly costs of therapy (economic inputs). Baseline inputs (2020-2022) were collected from IQVIA
resultsThe number of equivalent patients treated in 2028 in Italy was estimated at around 67,000, with an increase of 10% versus 2022. In terms of treatment pattern evolution, first-line treatments are expected to reduce their shares from 47% in 2022 to 27% in 2028, and Bruton tyrosine kinase inhibitors are expected to reach 23% of patient shares. Overall, expenditure for MS is estimated to decrease from €721 million in 2022 to €551 million in 2028, mainly due to losses of exclusivity and renegotiation of drug prices.
conclusionDespite the increase in the number of patients treated for MS and the launch of new molecules that will reach high market penetration, the model confirmed sustainability for the Italian National Healthcare Service.
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