Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39093373›Full record

ArticleAmbio2025

From chocolate to palm oil: The future of Indonesia's cocoa plantations.

Saskia Dröge, Janne Bemelmans, Charline Depoorter, Muhammad Justi Makmun Jusrin, Axel Marx, Bruno Verbist, Lilik Budi Prasetyo, Miet Maertens, Bart Muys

Erratum issuedAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Ambio, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Not yet cited in PubMed.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
0citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

0 citing papers in PubMed.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Saskia DrögeDivision of Forest, Nature and Landscape, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, KU Leuven, Celestijnenlaan 200E, Box 2411, 3001, Leuven, Belgium. Saskia.droege@kuleuven.be.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8691-1080
Janne BemelmansDivision of Bioeconomics, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, KU Leuven, Celestijnenlaan 200E, Box 2411, 3001, Leuven, Belgium.
Charline DepoorterDivision of Bioeconomics, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, KU Leuven, Celestijnenlaan 200E, Box 2411, 3001, Leuven, Belgium.
Muhammad Justi Makmun JusrinFaculty of Forestry and Environment, IPB University, Campus Dramaga, Bogor, West Java, 16680, Indonesia.
Axel MarxLeuven Centre for Global Governance Studies, KU Leuven, House De Dorlodot, Charles Deberiotstraat 34, 3000, Leuven, Belgium.
Bruno VerbistDivision of Forest, Nature and Landscape, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, KU Leuven, Celestijnenlaan 200E, Box 2411, 3001, Leuven, Belgium.
Lilik Budi PrasetyoFaculty of Forestry and Environment, IPB University, Campus Dramaga, Bogor, West Java, 16680, Indonesia.
Miet MaertensDivision of Bioeconomics, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, KU Leuven, Celestijnenlaan 200E, Box 2411, 3001, Leuven, Belgium.
Bart MuysDivision of Forest, Nature and Landscape, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, KU Leuven, Celestijnenlaan 200E, Box 2411, 3001, Leuven, Belgium.

Funding

KU Leuven Project Nr.C24M/19/031
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Indonesia is the world's third largest cocoa producer, but production is decreasing since 2011. We revisited cocoa farmers for an environmental assessment in Luwu Timur, Sulawesi, 7 months after a socio-economic survey on cocoa certification outcomes and observed many cocoa plantations being converted into oil palm and maize. Including our field data as well as secondary data on commodity prices and yields, we outline reasons for cocoa conversion, potential consequences for biodiversity, and assess the future outlook for the Indonesian cocoa sector. Low cocoa productivity, volatile cocoa prices and higher revenue for oil palm, among others, drive land-use change. If shade trees are cut during cocoa conversion, it may have negative implications for biodiversity. Solutions to low soil fertility, omnipresent pests and diseases, and stable producer prices are needed to increase profitability of cocoa and prevent conversion of cocoa agroforests to oil palm monocultures.

Indexed as

AgricultureCacaoPalm OilBiodiversityChocolateConservation of Natural ResourcesCrops, AgriculturalIndonesiaPalm OilCertificationCocoaIndonesiaLand-use changeMaizeOil palm

Identifiers

PMID39093373
PMCPMC11607354

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.