ArticleNature communications2024
Achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions critical to limit climate tipping risks.
Article in Nature communications, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
11 citing papers in PubMed.
- Context-specific life cycle emissions pathways for EU buildings and construction.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Accounting carbon emission and proposals for their reduction at a university campus in China.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Failure to track a stable AMOC state under rapid climate change.Nature climate change · 2026Article
- High temperature evaporative cooler utilizing boiling suppression at water's boiling point.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Are Ecosystem Services Replaceable by Technology Yet? Bio-Inspired Technologies for Ecosystem Services: Challenges and Opportunities.Biomimetics (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025Article
- Review
- Article
- Irreversible glacier change and trough water for centuries after overshooting 1.5 °C.Nature climate change · 2025Article
- Warming of +1.5 °C is too high for polar ice sheets.Communications earth & environment · 2025Review
- Stabilising COScientific reports · 2024Article
- Overconfidence in climate overshoot.Nature · 2024Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
10 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Under current emission trajectories, temporarily overshooting the Paris global warming limit of 1.5 °C is a distinct possibility. Permanently exceeding this limit would substantially increase the probability of triggering climate tipping elements. Here, we investigate the tipping risks associated with several policy-relevant future emission scenarios, using a stylised Earth system model of four interconnected climate tipping elements. We show that following current policies this century would commit to a 45% tipping risk by 2300 (median, 10-90% range: 23-71%), even if temperatures are brought back to below 1.5 °C. We find that tipping risk by 2300 increases with every additional 0.1 °C of overshoot above 1.5 °C and strongly accelerates for peak warming above 2.0 °C. Achieving and maintaining at least net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2100 is paramount to minimise tipping risk in the long term. Our results underscore that stringent emission reductions in the current decade are critical for planetary stability.
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.