Small vessel disease burden predicts incident stroke and all-cause death, but not acute coronary event.

Total small vessel disease (SVD) score is used to measure the burden of SVD by incorporating four established neuroimaging markers; white matter hyperintensity, lacune, cerebral microbleed, and enlarged perivascular space, ranging from 0 to 4. Whether total SVD scores predict all vascular outcomes remains unclear. This study aimed to clarify the predictive value of the total SVD score for incident stroke, mortality, and acute coronary syndrome in independent outpatients with vascular risk factors. We derived data from The Tokyo Women's Medical University Cerebrovascular Disease registry, a prospective observational registry in which 1011 patients with evidence of cerebral vessel disease on magnetic resonance imaging were enrolled. They were followed up until March 2023. The primary outcomes were stroke, all-cause death, and acute coronary syndrome (ACS). After excluding those with a modified Rankin scale score >1, Mini-mental State Examination score <24, and missing T2* images, 692 patients were included. During a median follow-up period of 4.6 years, stroke, ACS, and all-cause death occurred in 52, 24, and 45 patients, respectively. In multivariate analysis, the total SVD score was independently associated with stroke, and all-cause death but not with acute coronary syndrome. Both cutoff values of the total SVD score for stroke, and all-cause death were 1. In conclusion, the total SVD score could predict stroke and mortality but not acute coronary syndrome. Our results suggest intensive management of patients with a total SVD score ≥1 to prevent stroke and all-cause death. Patients with higher total SVD scores were significantly more likely to have a stroke (A; P = 0.012) than those with lower total SVD scores. However, no association was observed between total SVD scores and acute coronary syndrome (B, P = 0.604). For incident stroke, total SVD scores of 1 and 2 were the cutoff levels.