ArticleNature communications2024
Increasing intensity of enterovirus outbreaks projected with climate change.
Article in Nature communications, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 14 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
14 citing papers in PubMed.
- Emergence of an echovirus 17 subtype causing a viral meningitis outbreak, Israel, 2025 to 2026.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2026Article
- Modelling the impacts of meteorological factors on herpangina: a Bayesian spatiotemporal analysis.Tropical medicine and health · 2026Article
- Enterovirus D68 in United States wastewater: a longitudinal surveillance study integrating climatic, demographic, and clinical data.Lancet regional health. Americas · 2026Article
- Climate change and infectious diseases.Nature medicine · 2026Review
- Seasonal Trends of Major Respiratory, Gastrointestinal, and Other Viral Infections in Korea: An Analysis Before, During, and After the Coronavirus Disease 2019 Pandemic.Annals of laboratory medicine · 2026Review
- Interactive and joint effects of multiple meteorological and air pollution exposures on hand, foot and mouth disease risk in western China: a time-series analysis.BMJ public health · 2026Article
- Epidemiological characteristics and influencing factors of hand, foot and mouth disease reinfection cases in a large district of southern China.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Article
- Respiratory enterovirus D68: virology, clinical surveillance, host-pathogen interactions, and therapeutic prospects.Frontiers in cellular and infection microbiology · 2026Review
- Development of enterovirus transencapsidation assays as tools to understand viral entry.The Journal of general virology · 2025Article
- Detection of enterovirus RNA in pancreas and lymphoid tissues of organ donors with type 1 diabetes.Diabetologia · 2025Article
- Insight into the Life Cycle of Enterovirus-A71.Viruses · 2025Review
- Detection of enterovirus RNA in pancreas and lymphoid tissues of organ donors with type 1 diabetes.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2024Article
- Increasing intensity of enterovirus outbreaks projected with climate change.Nature communications · 2024Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Pathogens of the enterovirus genus, including poliovirus and coxsackieviruses, typically circulate in the summer months suggesting a possible positive association between warmer weather and transmission. Here we evaluate the environmental and demographic drivers of enterovirus transmission, as well as the implications of climate change for future enterovirus circulation. We leverage pre-vaccination era data on polio in the US as well as data on two enterovirus A serotypes in China and Japan that are known to cause hand, foot, and mouth disease. Using mechanistic modeling and statistical approaches, we find that enterovirus transmission appears positively correlated with temperature although demographic factors, particularly the timing of school semesters, remain important. We use temperature projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) to simulate future outbreaks under late 21st-century climate change for Chinese provinces. We find that outbreak size increases with climate change on average, though results differ across climate models depending on the degree of wintertime warming. In the worst-case scenario, we project peak outbreaks in some locations could increase by up to 40%.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.