Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39084928›Full record

Observational studyBritish journal of anaesthesia2024

The lifetime risk of surgery in England: a nationwide observational cohort study.

Sarah-Louise Watson, Alexander J Fowler, Priyanthi Dias, Bruce Biccard, Yize I Wan, Rupert M Pearse, Tom E F Abbott

Abstract readObservational Study
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Observational study in British journal of anaesthesia, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
7citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

7 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Article
  3. Observational
  4. Article
  5. Review
  6. Article
  7. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Sarah-Louise WatsonBarts and the London School of Medicine and Dentistry, Queen Mary University of London, London, UK.
Alexander J FowlerCritical Care and Perioperative Medicine Research Group, William Harvey Research Institute, Queen Mary University of London, London, UK.
Priyanthi DiasCritical Care and Perioperative Medicine Research Group, William Harvey Research Institute, Queen Mary University of London, London, UK.
Bruce BiccardDepartment of Anaesthesia and Perioperative Medicine, Groote Schuur Hospital, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa.
Yize I WanCritical Care and Perioperative Medicine Research Group, William Harvey Research Institute, Queen Mary University of London, London, UK.
Rupert M PearseCritical Care and Perioperative Medicine Research Group, William Harvey Research Institute, Queen Mary University of London, London, UK.
Tom E F AbbottCritical Care and Perioperative Medicine Research Group, William Harvey Research Institute, Queen Mary University of London, London, UK. Electronic address: t.abbott@qmul.ac.uk.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThe average number of times a person will have surgery in their lifetime, and the amount of surgical healthcare resources they use, is unknown. Lifetime risk is a measure of the risk of an average person having a specific event within their lifetime. We report the lifetime risk of surgery and the change observed during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic.

methodsWe conducted a population cohort study using hospital episode statistics to identify all patients undergoing surgery between January 1, 2016, and December 31, 2020, in England. We calculated age- and sex-specific incidence rates of surgery and combined these with routinely available population and mortality data from the Office for National Statistics. We computed the probability of requiring surgery stratified by 5-yr epochs (age 0-4 to ≥90 yr). Our primary analysis calculated lifetime risk for all surgery using the life table method. We assessed the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, comparing a pre-pandemic and a pandemic period.

resultsBetween 2016 and 2020, 23 427 531 patients underwent surgery, of which 11 937 062 were first surgeries. The average denominator population for England was 55.9 million. The lifetime risk of first surgery was 60.2% (95% confidence interval 55.1-65.4%) for women and 59.1% (95% confidence interval 54.2-64.1%) for men. The COVID-19 pandemic decreased the lifetime risk of first surgery by 32.3% for women and by 31.7% for men. This estimated lifetime risk should only be applied to the English population.

conclusionsThis population epidemiological analysis suggests that approximately 60% of people in England will undergo surgery in their lifetime.

Indexed as

COVID-19Surgical Procedures, OperativeAdolescentAdultAgedAged, 80 and overChildChild, PreschoolCohort StudiesEnglandFemaleHumansInfantInfant, NewbornMaleMiddle AgedCOVID-19cumulative incidenceepidemiologyhealth services researchlife tableslifetime risksurgery

Identifiers

PMID39084928
PMCPMC11443128

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.