ArticleScience advances2024
An unprecedented fall drought drives Dust Bowl-like losses associated with La Niña events in US wheat production.
Article in Science advances, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.
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Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed.
- Genetic modulation of yield and phenotypic plasticity of yield in winter wheat.Journal of experimental botany · 2026Article
- The role of endogenous hormones in regulating grain number in oat panicles under drought stress across cultivars.Frontiers in plant science · 2026Article
- Concurrent improvements in maize yield and drought resistance through breeding advances in the U.S.Corn Belt.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Effects of exogenous salicylic acid on the adaptive capacity ofFrontiers in plant science · 2025Article
- Utilizing machine learning to optimize agricultural inputs for improved rice production benefits.iScience · 2024Article
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Authors and funding
12 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Unprecedented precipitation deficits in the 2022-2023 growing season across the primary wheat-producing region in the United States caused delays in winter wheat emergence and poor crop growth. Using an integrated approach, we quantitatively unraveled a 37% reduction in wheat production as being attributable to both per-harvested acre yield loss and severe crop abandonment, reminiscent of the Dust Bowl years in the 1930s. We used random forest machine learning and game theory analytics to show that the main driver of yield loss was spring drought, whereas fall drought dominated abandonment rates. Furthermore, results revealed, across the US winter wheat belt, the La Niña phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), increased abandonment rates compared to the El Niño phase. These findings underscore the necessity of simultaneously addressing crop abandonment and yield decline to stabilize wheat production amid extreme climatic conditions and provide a holistic understanding of global-scale ENSO dynamics on wheat production.
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Registered trials
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