Predicting bacterial interaction outcomes from monoculture growth and supernatant assays.

How to derive principles of community dynamics and stability is a central question in microbial ecology. Bottom-up experiments, in which a small number of bacterial species are mixed, have become popular to address it. However, experimental setups are typically limited because co-culture experiments are labor-intensive and species are difficult to distinguish. Here, we use a four-species bacterial community to show that information from monoculture growth and inhibitory effects induced by secreted compounds can be combined to predict the competitive rank order in the community. Specifically, integrative monoculture growth parameters allow building a preliminary competitive rank order, which is then adjusted using inhibitory effects from supernatant assays. While our procedure worked for two different media, we observed differences in species rank orders between media. We then parameterized computer simulations with our empirical data to show that higher order species interactions largely follow the dynamics predicted from pairwise interactions with one important exception. The impact of inhibitory compounds was reduced in higher order communities because their negative effects were spread across multiple target species. Altogether, we formulated three simple rules of how monoculture growth and supernatant assay data can be combined to establish a competitive species rank order in an experimental four-species community.