Income or Job Loss and Psychological Distress During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

Importance: Given the expiration of expanded unemployment and other benefits during the COVID-19 pandemic, it is important to understand the association between pandemic income or job loss and long-term implications on mental health. Objective: To evaluate the association between income or job loss due to the COVID-19 pandemic and later psychological distress. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study used 5 waves of nationally representative, longitudinal survey data (September 16, 2019, through September 18, 2022) from the Pew Research Center's American Trends Panel. Doubly robust propensity score-weighted quasi-Poisson models were used to estimate the association of self or household income or job loss during the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic with later psychological distress, while controlling for pre-income loss characteristics (demographics, finances, and psychological distress). The study sample comprised US working-age adults (aged 18-64 years) who had not experienced income or job loss due to the COVID-19 pandemic by March 24, 2020. Exposure: Participant-reported self or household income or job loss (ie, reduced hours or demand for work) due to the COVID19 pandemic between March 24, 2020, and August 16, 2020. Main Outcome and Measures: Psychological distress was measured using a composite scale of 0 to 15 based on participants' reported frequency of feeling depressed, on edge, sleepless, lonely, and hopeless in the past week in March 2020, February 2021, and September 2022. Results: Of 1392 working-age adults (survey weighted 52.7% male and 47.7% aged 30-49 years) who had not reported income or job loss before March 24, 2020, a survey weighted 35.7% reported job or income loss between March 24 and August 16, 2020. Early-phase pandemic income or job loss was associated with higher distress in February 2021 (estimated ratio, 1.09; 95% CI, 1.01-1.18; P = .03) and September 2022 (estimated ratio, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.02-1.22; P = .02) among participants who experienced job or income loss between March 24 and August 16, 2020, compared with the propensity score-weighted mean in the group who did not experience income loss. Conclusions and Relevance: These small but significant within-person associations between early-phase pandemic household income or job loss and psychological distress up to 29 months later suggest that policies are needed to support people with income or job loss to help mitigate the long-term adverse mental health outcomes of economic disruption.