A Risk Prediction Model of Serious Adverse Events After Cardiac Catheterization for Chinese Adults Patients with Moderate and Severe Congenital Heart Disease.

Background: There are almost 2 million adult patients with congenital heart disease in China, and the number of moderate and severe patients is increasing. However, few studies have investigated the risk of serious adverse events (SAE) after catheterization among them. The aim of this study was to identify risk factors for SAE related to cardiac catheterization and to provide the risk scoring model for predicting SAE. Methods: A total of 690 patients with moderate and severe adult patients with congenital heart disease (ACHD) who underwent cardiac catheterization in Wuhan Asian Heart Hospital Affiliated to Wuhan University of Science and Technology from January 2018 to January 2022 were retrospectively collected and subsequently divided into a modeling group and a verification group. A univariate analysis was performed on the identified SAE risk factors, and then significant factors were included in the multivariate logistic regression model to screen for independent predictors of SAE. The receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test were used to evaluate the discrimination and calibration of the model, respectively. Results: A SAE occurred in 69 (10.0%) of the 690 catheterization procedures meeting inclusion criteria. The established SAE risk calculation formula was logit( Conclusions: The risk prediction model developed in this study has high discrimination and calibration, which can provide reference for clinical prediction and evaluation of SAE risk after cardiac catheterization in patients with moderate and severe ACHD.