ArticleScientific reports2024
Predicting the epidemiological trend of acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis in China using Bayesian structural time-series model.
Article in Scientific reports, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers.
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Who cites it
6 citing papers in PubMed.
- Leveraging machine learning for accurate forecasting of pulmonary tuberculosis epidemics in a coastal city in China.Tropical medicine and health · 2026Article
- Epidemiological insights into canine rabies in Chennai: Trends, forecasting and One Health implications.One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2025Article
- Stroke Mortality in Kazakhstan: Comparison of National Health Records to Global Burden of Disease Study.JACC. Asia · 2025Article
- Evaluation of the impact of COVID-19 on hepatitis B in Henan Province and its epidemic trend based on Bayesian structured time series model.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Incidence of acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis in Chongqing: a forecasting study based on mathematical models.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- Global burden of endometriosis from 1990 to 2021 and projections to 2050: a comprehensive analysis based on the global burden of disease study 2021.Frontiers in global women's health · 2025Article
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5 authors.
Funding
Abstract
This study aims to explore the application value of the Bayesian Time Structure Sequence (BSTS) model in estimating the acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis (AHC) epidemics. The reported AHC cases spanning from January 2011 to October 2022 in China were collated. Utilizing R software, the BSTS and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models were constructed using the data from January 2011 to December 2021. The prediction effect of both models was compared using the data from January to October 2022, and finally the AHC incidence from November 2022 to December 2023 was predicted. The results indicated that forecast errors under the BSTS model were lower than those under the ARIMA model. The actual AHC incidence in July 2022 from the ARIMA model deviated from the 95% confidence interval (CI) of the predicted value. However, the observed AHC incidence from the BSTS model fell within the 95% CI of the predicted value. Notably, the BSTS model predicted 26,474 new AHC cases in China from November 2022 to December 2023, exhibiting better prediction performance compared to the ARIMA model. This indicates that the BSTS model possesses a high application value for forecasting the epidemic trends of AHC, making it a valuable tool for disease surveillance and prevention strategies.
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