ArticleChild development
Delay of gratification and adult outcomes: The Marshmallow Test does not reliably predict adult functioning.
Article in Child development. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
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Who cites it
3 citing papers in PubMed.
- Using episodic future thinking (or not?) to optimize decision-making.Psychonomic bulletin & review · 2026Review
- The power of cultural habits: The role of effortless control in delaying gratification.Current opinion in psychology · 2024Review
- Unique Components of Preschool Children's Externalizing Behaviors that Relate to the Development of Early-Literacy Skills: Comparing Teacher and Parent Report.Early childhood research quarterlyArticle
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
Abstract
This study extends the analytic approach conducted by Watts et al. (2018) to examine the long-term predictive validity of delay of gratification. Participants (n = 702; 83% White, 46% male) completed the Marshmallow Test at 54 months (1995-1996) and survey measures at age 26 (2017-2018). Using a preregistered analysis, Marshmallow Test performance was not strongly predictive of adult achievement, health, or behavior. Although modest bivariate associations were detected with educational attainment (r = .17) and body mass index (r = -.17), almost all regression-adjusted coefficients were nonsignificant. No clear pattern of moderation was detected between delay of gratification and either socioeconomic status or sex. Results indicate that Marshmallow Test performance does not reliably predict adult outcomes. The predictive and construct validity of the ability to delay of gratification are discussed.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.