ArticleNature communications2024
Title evaluation of FluSight influenza forecasting in the 2021-22 and 2022-23 seasons with a new target laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalizations.
Abstract read
In one paragraph
Article in Nature communications, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 43 papers.
0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
43citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
43 citing papers in PubMed.
- Stage-aware deep learning with adversarial data synthesis enables prospective season-scale A/H1N1 influenza forecasting in China.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2027Article
- Expanding optimization ensemble model methods for forecasting seasonal influenza in the U.S.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2026Article
- Digital Prescription-Based Influenza Activity Forecasting in Jiangxi Province, China: Comparative Modeling Analysis Using Multisource Data.Journal of medical Internet research · 2026Article
- Retrospective evaluation of trained and untrained probabilistic ensemble forecasts for influenza hospital admissions - United States, 2022-2025.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2026Article
- Generative diffusion models for spatiotemporal influenza forecasting.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- Evaluation of short-term multi-target respiratory forecasts over winter 2024-25 in England using sub-ensemble contribution analyses.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- Evaluation of respiratory disease hospitalisation forecasts using synthetic outbreak data.Communications medicine · 2026Article
- Learning shared forecast-error structure to improve ensemble forecasts of seasonal respiratory outbreaks.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2026Article
- AI-Driven Approaches for the Detection, Classification, and Surveillance of Viral Pathogens: Current Advances, Challenges, and Future Directions.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Review
- Adaptive multi-model ensembles for improved epidemic projections and decision support.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2026Article
- A Software Platform for Collaborative Infectious Disease Modeling.Nature health · 2026Article
- Local Influenza Forecasts Outperform State-Level Forecasts in the United States.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2026Article
- A real-time early warning system to anticipate respiratory disease outbreaks using transfer learning.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Beyond influenza-like-illness: data-driven syndromic surveillance for fine-scale monitoring of seasonal respiratory viruses.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2026Article
- Forecastability of infectious disease time series: are some seasons and pathogens intrinsically more difficult to forecast?PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- Toward AI foundation models for epidemics: Promise, challenges, and paths forward.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026Article
- A disease-agnostic approach to ensemble learning for infectious disease forecasting.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Basic Baseline model design choices can substantially influence performance in collaborative forecast hubs.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2026Article
- Uncovering the post-pandemic timing of influenza, RSV, and COVID-19 driving seasonal influenza-like illness in the United States: a retrospective ecological study.Lancet regional health. Americas · 2026Article
- Leveraging probabilistic forecasts for dengue preparedness and control: The 2024 Dengue Forecasting Sprint in Brazil.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026Article
Corrections and comments
- Update of
Authors and funding
110 authors.
Sarabeth M Mathis *Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA. nqr2@cdc.gov.ORCID 0000-0003-3131-307X
Alexander E Webber *Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA.
Tomás M LeónCalifornia Department of Public Health, Richmond, CA, USA.
Erin L MurrayCalifornia Department of Public Health, Richmond, CA, USA.
Monica SunCalifornia Department of Public Health, Richmond, CA, USA.
Lauren A WhiteCalifornia Department of Public Health, Richmond, CA, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-3852-5374
Logan C BrooksCarnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, USA.
Alden GreenCarnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, USA.
Addison J HuCarnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, USA.
Roni RosenfeldCarnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-3274-5862
Dmitry ShemetovCarnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, USA.
Ryan J TibshiraniCarnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, USA.
Daniel J McDonaldUniversity of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada.ORCID 0000-0002-0443-4282
Sasikiran KandulaNorwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway.
Sen PeiColumbia University, New York, NY, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-7072-2995
Rami YaariColumbia University, New York, NY, USA.
Teresa K YamanaColumbia University, New York, NY, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-8349-3151
Jeffrey ShamanColumbia University, New York, NY, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-7216-7809
Pulak AgarwalGeorgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, USA.
Srikar BalusuGeorgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, USA.
Gautham GururajanGeorgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, USA.
Harshavardhan KamarthiGeorgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, USA.
B Aditya PrakashGeorgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-3252-455X
Rishi RamanGeorgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, USA.
Zhiyuan ZhaoGeorgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, USA.
Alexander RodríguezUniversity of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-4313-9913
Akilan MeiyappanGuidehouse Advisory and Consulting Services, McClean, VA, USA.
Shalina OmarGuidehouse Advisory and Consulting Services, McClean, VA, USA.
Prasith BaccamIEM, Bel Air, MD, USA.
Heidi L GurungIEM, Bel Air, MD, USA.
Brad T SuchoskiIEM, Bel Air, MD, USA.
Steve A StageIEM, Baton Rouge, LA, USA.
Marco AjelliIndiana University School of Public Health, Bloomington, IN, USA.
Allisandra G KummerIndiana University School of Public Health, Bloomington, IN, USA.
Maria LitvinovaIndiana University School of Public Health, Bloomington, IN, USA.
Paulo C VenturaIndiana University School of Public Health, Bloomington, IN, USA.
Spencer WadsworthIowa State University, Ames, IA, USA.
Jarad NiemiIowa State University, Ames, IA, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-5079-158X
Erica CarcelenJohns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA.
Alison L HillJohns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-6583-3623
Sara L LooJohns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-9763-5587
Clifton D McKeeJohns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-6149-0598
Koji SatoJohns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-3827-4459
Claire SmithJohns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA.
Shaun TrueloveJohns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-0538-0607
Sung-Mok JungUniversity of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-0787-4515
Joseph C LemaitreUniversity of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-2677-6574
Justin LesslerUniversity of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-9741-8109
Thomas McAndrewLehigh University, Bethlehem, PA, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-6362-9231
Wenxuan YeLehigh University, Bethlehem, PA, USA.
Nikos BosseLondon School of Health and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-7750-5280
William S HlavacekLos Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-4383-8711
Yen Ting LinLos Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-6893-8423
Abhishek MallelaLos Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-3588-5358
Graham C GibsonLos Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, USA.
Ye ChenNorthern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, USA.
Shelby M LammNorthern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, USA.
Jaechoul LeeNorthern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-0363-1628
Richard G PosnerNorthern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-0489-9397
Amanda C PerofskyFogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-7341-9193
Cécile ViboudFogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-3243-4711
Leonardo ClementeNortheastern University, Boston, MA, USA.
Fred LuNortheastern University, Boston, MA, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-1026-5734
Austin G MeyerNortheastern University, Boston, MA, USA.
Mauricio SantillanaNortheastern University, Boston, MA, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-4206-418X
Matteo ChinazziNortheastern University, Boston, MA, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-5955-1929
Jessica T DavisNortheastern University, Boston, MA, USA.
Kunpeng MuNortheastern University, Boston, MA, USA.
Ana Pastore Y PionttiNortheastern University, Boston, MA, USA.
Alessandro VespignaniNortheastern University, Boston, MA, USA.
Xinyue XiongNortheastern University, Boston, MA, USA.
Michal Ben-NunPredictive Science Inc, San Diego, CA, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-9164-0008
Pete RileyPredictive Science Inc, San Diego, CA, USA.
James TurtlePredictive Science Inc, San Diego, CA, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-0735-7769
Chis Hulme-LoweSignature Science, LLC, Austin, TX, USA.
Shakeel JessaSignature Science, LLC, Austin, TX, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-9199-743X
V P NagrajSignature Science, LLC, Charlottesville, VA, USA.
Stephen D TurnerSignature Science, LLC, Charlottesville, VA, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-9140-9028
Desiree WilliamsSignature Science, LLC, Charlottesville, VA, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-0524-2055
Avranil BasuUniversity of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA.
John M DrakeUniversity of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-4646-1235
Spencer J FoxUniversity of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-1969-3778
Ehsan SuezUniversity of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA.
Monica G CojocaruUniversity of Guelph, Guelph, ON, Canada.
Edward W ThommesUniversity of Guelph, Guelph, ON, Canada.
Estee Y CramerUniversity of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, MA, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-1373-3177
Aaron GerdingUniversity of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, MA, USA.
Ariane StarkUniversity of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, MA, USA.
Evan L RayUniversity of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, MA, USA.
Nicholas G ReichUniversity of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, MA, USA.
Li ShandrossUniversity of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, MA, USA.ORCID 0009-0008-1348-1954
Nutcha WattanachitUniversity of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, MA, USA.
Yijin WangUniversity of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, MA, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-4438-6366
Martha W ZornUniversity of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, MA, USA.
Majd Al AawarUniversity of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA.
Ajitesh SrivastavaUniversity of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-8706-5717
Lauren A MeyersUniversity of Texas Austin, Austin, TX, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-5828-8874
Aniruddha AdigaUniversity of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA.
Benjamin HurtUniversity of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-3803-2900
Gursharn KaurUniversity of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA.
Bryan L LewisUniversity of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-0793-6082
Madhav MaratheUniversity of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA.
Srinivasan VenkatramananUniversity of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-0874-8692
Patrick ButlerVirginia Tech, Arlington, VA, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-0468-6794
Andrew FarabowVirginia Tech, Arlington, VA, USA.
Naren RamakrishnanVirginia Tech, Arlington, VA, USA.
Nikhil MuralidharStevens Institute of Technology, Hoboken, NJ, USA.
Carrie ReedCenters for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA.
Matthew BiggerstaffCenters for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-5108-8311
Rebecca K BorcheringCenters for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA. xhq2@cdc.gov.ORCID 0000-0003-4309-2913
Funding
Methods for Reducing Spatial Uncertainty and Bias in Disease SurveillanceR01AI102939 · NIAID · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI LESSLER, JUSTIN · 2013 to 2017
$4.6MRFA-IP-20-003, FluMod - Center for the Multiscale Modeling of Pandemic and seasonal Flu Prevention and ControlU01IP001137 · IP · NORTHEASTERN UNIVERSITY · PI VESPIGNANI, ALESSANDRO · 2020 to 2024
$3.4MHardening Software for Rule-based models-Competitive RevisionR01GM111510 · NIGMS · NORTHERN ARIZONA UNIVERSITY · PI HLAVACEK, WILLIAM S, POSNER, RICHARD G · 2014 to 2023
$2.8MDevelopment of an Open-Source and Data-Driven Modeling Platform to Monitor and Forecast Disease ActivityR01GM130668 · NIGMS · NORTHEASTERN UNIVERSITY · PI SANTILLANA, MAURICIO · 2018 to 2022
$1.9MfMRI Analysis of Aging and Awareness in ConditioningR01AG021501 · NIA · STANFORD UNIVERSITY · PI DESMOND, JOHN E · 2004 to 2008
$1.6MACL HHS U01IP001137DOE | Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) 20220268ERNational Science Foundation (NSF) 2127976National Science Foundation (NSF) CAREER IIS-2028586National Science Foundation (NSF) CAREER IIS-2028586,National Science Foundation (NSF) CCF-1918770National Science Foundation (NSF) Expeditions CCF-1918656National Science Foundation (NSF) Expeditions CCF-1918770National Science Foundation (NSF) Medium IIS-1955883National Science Foundation (NSF) Medium IIS-2106961National Science Foundation (NSF) NRT DGE-1545362National Science Foundation (NSF) OAC-1835660National Science Foundation (NSF) PIPP CCF-2200269National Science Foundation (NSF) RAPID IIS-2027862NCIRD CDC HHS U01 IP001122NCIRD CDC HHS U01 IP001137NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI102939NIGMS NIH HHS R01 GM111510NIGMS NIH HHS R01 GM130668U.S. Department of Health & Human Services | CDC | National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases (NCIRD) HHS/CDC 6U01IP001137U.S. Department of Health & Human Services | Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) 200-2016-91781U.S. Department of Health & Human Services | Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) 75D30123C15907U.S. Department of Health & Human Services | Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) HHS/CDC 5U01IP0001137U.S. Department of Health & Human Services | Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) HHS/CDC 6U01IP001137U.S. Department of Health & Human Services | Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) NU380T000297U.S. Department of Health & Human Services | Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) U011P001121U.S. Department of Health & Human Services | National Institutes of Health (NIH) 5R01AI102939U.S. Department of Health & Human Services | National Institutes of Health (NIH) R01GM111510U.S. Department of Health & Human Services | National Institutes of Health (NIH) R01GM130668Virginia Department of Health (VDH) VDH-21-501-0135Virginia Department of Health (VDH) VDH-21-501-0135,
Abstract
Accurate forecasts can enable more effective public health responses during seasonal influenza epidemics. For the 2021-22 and 2022-23 influenza seasons, 26 forecasting teams provided national and jurisdiction-specific probabilistic predictions of weekly confirmed influenza hospital admissions for one-to-four weeks ahead. Forecast skill is evaluated using the Weighted Interval Score (WIS), relative WIS, and coverage. Six out of 23 models outperform the baseline model across forecast weeks and locations in 2021-22 and 12 out of 18 models in 2022-23. Averaging across all forecast targets, the FluSight ensemble is the 2
Indexed as
ForecastingHospitalizationInfluenza, HumanSeasonsHumansModels, Statistical
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390
Registered trials
None linked
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.