Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39054334›Full record

ArticleNature communications2024

Modelling onchocerciasis-associated epilepsy and the impact of ivermectin treatment on its prevalence and incidence.

Jacob N Stapley, Jonathan I D Hamley, Martin Walker, Matthew A Dixon, Robert Colebunders, Maria-Gloria Basáñez

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature communications, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
8citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

8 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Review
  2. Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Jacob N StapleyMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK. j.stapley20@imperial.ac.uk.ORCID 0000-0003-0732-1600
Jonathan I D HamleyMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-5755-2867
Martin WalkerMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-8714-5365
Matthew A DixonMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-1710-6237
Robert ColebundersGlobal Health Institute, University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium.ORCID 0000-0002-1919-1340
Maria-Gloria BasáñezMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK. m.basanez@imperial.ac.uk.ORCID 0000-0001-5031-3361

Funding

Gates Foundation INV-030046Medical Research Council MR/X020258/1RCUK | Medical Research Council (MRC) MR/S502388/1
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Retrospective cohort studies in Cameroon found an association between Onchocerca volvulus microfilarial load in childhood (measured in 1991-1993) and risk of developing epilepsy later in life (measured in 2017). We parameterised and integrated this relationship (across children aged 3-15 years) into the previously published, stochastic transmission model, EPIONCHO-IBM, for Simulium damnosum sensu lato-transmitted onchocerciasis. We simulated 19 years (1998-2017) of annual ivermectin mass drug administration (MDA) reflecting coverage in the study area, and modelled epilepsy prevalence and incidence. Scenario-based simulations of 25 years of (annual and biannual) MDA in hyper- and holoendemic settings, with 65% and 80% therapeutic coverage, were also conducted. EPIONCHO-IBM predicted 7.6% epilepsy prevalence (compared to 8.2% in the Cameroon study) and incidence of 317 cases/100,000 person-years (compared to 350). In hyperendemic areas, 25 years of biannual MDA (80% coverage) eliminated onchocerciasis-associated epilepsy (OAE) and protected untreated under-fives from its development. Strengthening onchocerciasis programmes, implementing alternative strategies, and evaluating treatment for under-fives and school-age children are crucial to prevent OAE in highly-endemic settings.

Indexed as

EpilepsyIvermectinOnchocerca volvulusOnchocerciasisAdolescentAnimalsCameroonChildChild, PreschoolFemaleHumansIncidenceMaleMass Drug AdministrationPrevalenceRetrospective StudiesIvermectin

Identifiers

PMID39054334
PMCPMC11272922

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.