Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39052745›Full record

ArticleThe Journal of infectious diseases2024

Testing and Treatment Interventions in Community Settings Key to Controlling a Recent Human Immunodeficiency Virus Outbreak Among People Who Inject Drugs in Glasgow: A Modeling Study.

Lara I Allen, Hannah Fraser, Jack Stone, Andrew McAuley, Kirsten M A Trayner, Rebecca Metcalfe, S Erica Peters, Sharon J Hutchinson, Peter Vickerman, Matthew Hickman

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In one paragraph

Article in The Journal of infectious diseases, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors.

Lara I AllenPopulation Health Sciences, Bristol Medical School, University of Bristol.ORCID 0000-0002-7555-8493
Hannah FraserPopulation Health Sciences, Bristol Medical School, University of Bristol.
Jack StonePopulation Health Sciences, Bristol Medical School, University of Bristol.
Andrew McAuleyClinical and Protecting Health Directorate, Public Health Scotland.
Kirsten M A TraynerClinical and Protecting Health Directorate, Public Health Scotland.
Rebecca MetcalfeSchool of Health and Life Sciences, Glasgow Caledonian University.
S Erica PetersBrownlee Centre for Infectious Diseases, National Health Service Greater Glasgow and Clyde, Glasgow, United Kingdom.
Sharon J HutchinsonClinical and Protecting Health Directorate, Public Health Scotland.
Peter VickermanPopulation Health Sciences, Bristol Medical School, University of Bristol.
Matthew HickmanPopulation Health Sciences, Bristol Medical School, University of Bristol.

Funding

Health Protection Research Unit (HPRU) in Behavioural Science and EvaluationMedical Research Council (MRC)MRCNational Institute for Health and Care ResearchNHS Greater Glasgow and ClydeNIHR HPRUProgramme Grants for Applied Research RP-PG-0616-20 008Public Health ScotlandWellcome TrustWellcome Trust WT 226619/Z/22/Z
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundA human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) outbreak was identified among people who inject drugs (PWID) in Glasgow in 2015, with >150 diagnoses by the end of 2019. The outbreak response involved scaling up HIV testing and improving HIV treatment initiation and retention.

methodsWe parameterized and calibrated a dynamic, deterministic model of HIV transmission among PWID in Glasgow to epidemiological data. We use this model to evaluate HIV testing and treatment interventions. We present results in terms of relative changes in HIV prevalence, incidence, and cases averted.

resultsIf the improvements in both testing and treatment had not occurred, we predict that HIV prevalence would have reached 17.8% (95% credible interval [CrI], 14.1%-22.6%) by the beginning of 2020, compared to 5.9% (95% CrI, 4.7%-7.4%) with the improvements. If the improvements had been made on detection of the outbreak in 2015, we predict that peak incidence would have been 26.2% (95% CrI, 8.8%-49.3%) lower and 62.7% (95% CrI, 43.6%-76.6%) of the outbreak cases could have been averted. The outbreak could have been avoided if the improvements had already been in place.

conclusionsOur modeling suggests that the HIV testing and treatment interventions successfully brought the HIV outbreak in Glasgow under control by the beginning of 2020.

Indexed as

Disease OutbreaksHIV InfectionsSubstance Abuse, IntravenousAdultFemaleHumansIncidenceMaleMiddle AgedPrevalenceScotlandantiretroviral treatmentHIVHIV testingmodeling

Identifiers

PMID39052745
PMCPMC11272080

What OpenQuestion holds

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.