ArticleThe Journal of infectious diseases2024
The Fading of the Mpox Outbreak Among Men Who Have Sex With Men: A Mathematical Modelling Study.
Article in The Journal of infectious diseases, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 37 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
37 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Dynamics of global mpox epidemics, 1970-2025: a systematic review and meta-analysis of evolving transmissibility and intervention effects.BMJ global health · 2026Pooled it
- Doxycycline Postexposure Prophylaxis May Dramatically Reduce Syphilis Among Gay, Bisexual, and Other Men Who Have Sex With Men: A Modeling Study.Sexually transmitted diseases · 2026Article
- Assessing the impact of vaccination and behavioural change on Mpox transmission in high-risk groups in the Democratic Republic of Congo using an age-structured mathematical model.One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2026Article
- A Review of Epidemiological Modeling Studies on Monkeypox.China CDC weekly · 2026Article
- Trends of Pathogenicity and Potential Risk Evaluation of Central African Mpox Variant to Cause Global Public Health Emergency: A Cross-Sectional Analysis.Health science reports · 2026Article
- Rapid spread of MPXV clade Ib with high genetic relatedness among men who have sex with men, Berlin, Germany, week 50 2025 up to week 10 2026.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2026Article
- Pre-exposure vaccination in the high-risk population is crucial in controlling mpox resurgence in Canada.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Review
- Preemptive Mpox Vaccine Deployment: Aligning Strategy With Reality.The Journal of infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Considering the effects of pair formation dynamics on mpox and HIV co-infection in the gbMSM community.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- A Compartmental Mathematical Model to Assess the Impact of Vaccination, Isolation, and Key Epidemiological Parameters on Mpox Control.Medical sciences (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025Article
- Temporal and age-structured analysis of Mpox spread in the 2022 Global outbreak: data-assimilation insights for epidemic control.Infectious diseases of poverty · 2025Article
- Relationship dynamics and behavioral adaptations in the control of the 2022 mpox epidemic.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Article
- Strength and weakness of disease-induced herd immunity in networks.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Article
- Modelling international spread of clade IIb mpox on the Asian continent.Bulletin of the World Health Organization · 2025Article
- Transmission dynamics of the 2022 mpox epidemic in New York City.Nature medicine · 2025Article
- Dynamic Landscape of Mpox Importation Risks Driven by Heavy-Tailed Sexual Contact Networks Among Men Who Have Sex With Men in 2022.The Journal of infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Evolutionary epidemiology of the monkeypox virus in Shandong Province during the post-global outbreak era.Frontiers in microbiology · 2025Article
- Combining mpox vaccination and behavioural changes to control possible future mpox resurgence among men who have sex with men: a mathematical modelling study.BMJ public health · 2025Article
- The resurgence of monkeypox virus: a critical global health challenge and the need for vigilant intervention.Frontiers in public health · 2025Review
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundIn the Netherlands, the number of mpox cases started declining before mpox vaccination was initiated. Most cases were men who have sex with men (MSM). We investigated whether the decline in mpox could be attributed to infection-induced immunity or behavioral adaptations.
methodsWe developed a transmission model and accounted for possible behavioral adaptations: fewer casual partners and shorter time until MSM with mpox refrain from sexual contacts.
resultsWithout behavioral adaptations, the peak in modelled cases matched observations, but the decline was less steep than observed. With behavioral adaptations in the model, we found a decline of 16%-18% in numbers of casual partners in June and 13%-22% in July 2022. Model results showed a halving of the time before refraining from sex. When mpox vaccination started, 57% of MSM with very high sexual activity in the model had been infected. Model scenarios revealed that the outbreak could have waned by November 2022 even without vaccination.
conclusionsThe limited duration of the mpox outbreak in the Netherlands can be ascribed primarily to infection-induced immunity among MSM with high sexual activity levels. The decline was accelerated by behavioral adaptations. Immunity among those most sexually active is essential to impede mpox resurgence.
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