ArticleScience advances2024
Trait-mediated speciation and human-driven extinctions in proboscideans revealed by unsupervised Bayesian neural networks.
Article in Science advances, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers.
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Who cites it
7 citing papers in PubMed.
- Lower speciation, not higher extinction, drove African megaherbivore diversity collapse.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Emergent patterns of island biodiversity in the Anthropocene.Science advances · 2026Review
- The earliest elephant-bone tool from Europe: An unexpected raw material for precision knapping of Acheulean handaxes.Science advances · 2026Article
- Pseudomonadota bridge cross-trophic interactions to suppress plant pathogens.The ISME journal · 2026Article
- Loss of macroevolutionary species fitness explains the rise and fall of clades.Nature ecology & evolution · 2025Article
- Fossils improve extinction-rate estimates under state-dependent diversification models.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2025Article
- Not evolved to save the planet, yet capable to promote pro-environmental action leveraging human nature.Frontiers in psychology · 2025Review
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
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Abstract
Species life-history traits, paleoenvironment, and biotic interactions likely influence speciation and extinction rates, affecting species richness over time. Birth-death models inferring the impact of these factors typically assume monotonic relationships between single predictors and rates, limiting our ability to assess more complex effects and their relative importance and interaction. We introduce a Bayesian birth-death model using unsupervised neural networks to explore multifactorial and nonlinear effects on speciation and extinction rates using fossil data. It infers lineage- and time-specific rates and disentangles predictor effects and importance through explainable artificial intelligence techniques. Analysis of the proboscidean fossil record revealed speciation rates shaped by dietary flexibility and biogeographic events. The emergence of modern humans escalated extinction rates, causing recent diversity decline, while regional climate had a lesser impact. Our model paves the way for an improved understanding of the intricate dynamics shaping clade diversification.
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Registered trials
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