Did the First COVID-19 National Lockdown Lead to an Increase in Domestic Abuse in the U.K.'s Capital City of London?

On March 23, 2020, the United Kingdom went into national lockdown to stop the spread of COVID-19. In this paper, we examine whether a policy aimed at minimizing the health consequences of the pandemic had unintended negative consequences for domestic abuse. Using data from the Metropolitan Police in England we estimate the impact of lockdown on domestic abuse in the 32 boroughs that make up the London metropolitan area. Using a before and after approach, and controlling for other factors, we show an increase in the probability of being a victim of domestic abuse during lockdown similar in magnitude to the increase experienced over the Christmas holidays. However, the overall picture masks inequalities across groups: with women, younger and older people, and people of Asian, Arab, and Middle Eastern ethnicity subject to the highest increases, reflecting vulnerabilities and existing inequalities. Of the domestic abuse-related crimes, it is the most violent crimes that saw the greatest increases during lockdown. Once lockdown restrictions are eased, rates decline but remain slightly higher than prior to lockdown up to 3 months later. The results present a clear message for policy makers: a policy adopted to alleviate one problem, even in times of crisis, must factor in the impact this may have in other areas. Failure to do so in this situation, despite existing evidence linking domestic abuse to stress, confinement, and crisis situations prior to lockdown, has resulted in an increase in domestic violence in the U.K.'s capital city, during lockdown and beyond.