ArticleJournal of the National Cancer Institute2024
Estimating sojourn time and sensitivity of screening for ovarian cancer using a Bayesian framework.
Article in Journal of the National Cancer Institute, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers.
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10 citing papers in PubMed.
- Estimating the Opportunity for Early Detection of Ovarian Cancer Using Individual-Patient Data from a Large Randomized Controlled Trial.Cancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology · 2025Trial
- Can ovarian cancer screening work? A secondary analysis of the UK collaborative trial of ovarian cancer screening.British journal of cancer · 2026Article
- Should Multi-Cancer Early Detection Testing Replace Guideline-Recommended Colorectal Cancer Screening? A Comparative Modeling Analysis.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2026Article
- World Ovarian Cancer Day: unravelling the molecular anatomy of a silent killer.Singapore medical journal · 2026Article
- Improving ovarian cancer risk assessment using a machine learning model developed on data from the Prostate Lung Colorectal Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial.International journal of gynecological cancer : official journal of the International Gynecological Cancer Society · 2026Article
- Development and validation of a histology-specific natural history model of ovarian cancer.American journal of obstetrics and gynecology · 2025Article
- Growth kinetics of high-grade serous ovarian cancer: implications for early detection.British journal of cancer · 2025Article
- Trends in young-onset cancer incidence: a modeling perspective.Journal of the National Cancer Institute · 2025Article
- Clinical Application of Artificial Intelligence in Ultrasound Imaging for Oncology.JMA journal · 2025Review
- Bevacizumab in ovarian cancer therapy: current advances, clinical challenges, and emerging strategies.Frontiers in bioengineering and biotechnology · 2025Review
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Abstract
backgroundOvarian cancer is among the leading causes of gynecologic cancer-related death. Past ovarian cancer screening trials using combination of cancer antigen 125 testing and transvaginal ultrasound failed to yield statistically significant mortality reduction. Estimates of ovarian cancer sojourn time-that is, the period from when the cancer is first screen detectable until clinical detection-may inform future screening programs.
methodsWe modeled ovarian cancer progression as a continuous time Markov chain and estimated screening modality-specific sojourn time and sensitivity using a Bayesian approach. Model inputs were derived from the screening arms (multimodal and ultrasound) of the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening and the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian cancer screening trials. We assessed the quality of our estimates by using the posterior predictive P value. We derived histology-specific sojourn times by adjusting the overall sojourn time based on the corresponding histology-specific survival from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program.
resultsThe overall ovarian cancer sojourn time was 2.1 years (posterior predictive P value = .469) in the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian studies, with 65.7% screening sensitivity. The sojourn time was 2.0 years (posterior predictive P value = .532) in the United Kingdom Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening's multimodal screening arm and 2.4 years (posterior predictive P value = .640) in the ultrasound screening arm, with sensitivities of 93.2% and 64.5%, respectively. Stage-specific screening sensitivities in the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian studies were 39.1% and 82.9% for early-stage and advanced-stage disease, respectively. The histology-specific sojourn times ranged from 0.8 to 1.8 years for type II ovarian cancer and 2.9 to 6.6 years for type I ovarian cancer.
conclusionsAnnual screening is not effective for all ovarian cancer subtypes. Screening sensitivity for early-stage ovarian cancers is not sufficient for substantial mortality reduction.
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