ArticleJournal of the American Academy of Dermatology2024
Differential time series analysis shows deceleration in melanoma mortality prior to the widespread use of highly effective therapies.
Article in Journal of the American Academy of Dermatology, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
1 citing paper in PubMed.
- Global burden of non-melanoma skin cancers among older adults: a comprehensive analysis using machine learning approaches.Scientific reports · 2025Article
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3 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundAlthough the recent drop in melanoma mortality has been attributed to the introduction of newer therapies, the impact of ongoing public efforts remains unknown.
objectiveCharacterize and model melanoma mortality trends before the era of molecular and immune therapies (1969-2014) in the U.S. and Australia.
methodsDifferential time series analysis based on population-ascertained melanoma mortality rates from the U.S. and Australia. Mortality rates were modeled and compared to the trajectories of ten other cancers.
resultsMelanoma mortality rates have been significantly decelerating since the 1970s in both the U.S. (P < .0001) and Australia (P = .0021). Zero acceleration occurred around 2001 (95% CI: 1996, 2008) for the U.S. and 2004 (95% CI: 1999, 2011) for Australia. Male mortality rates decelerated 3x-4x faster than females in both countries. Melanoma mortality followed a similar quadratic function (R LIMITATIONS: Absolute mortality data used without further stratification or considering cancer incidence or covariates.
conclusionMelanoma deaths have been decelerating for the past 5 decades, reaching an inflection point around 2001, suggesting that mitigating campaigns were already afoot in both the U.S. and Australia before the advent of modern therapies.
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