Phylogeny predicts sensitivity in aquatic animals for only a minority of chemicals.

There are substantial gaps in our empirical knowledge of the effects of chemical exposure on aquatic life that are unlikely to be filled by traditional laboratory toxicity testing alone. One possible alternative of generating new toxicity data is cross-species extrapolation (CSE), a statistical approach in which existing data are used to predict the effect of a chemical on untested species. Some CSE models use relatedness as a predictor of chemical sensitivity, but relatively little is known about how strongly shared evolutionary history influences sensitivity across all chemicals. To address this question, we conducted a survey of phylogenetic signal in the toxicity data from aquatic animal species for a large set of chemicals using a phylogeny inferred from taxonomy. Strong phylogenetic signal was present in just nine of thirty-six toxicity datasets, and there were no clear shared properties among those datasets with strong signal. Strong signal was rare even among chemicals specifically developed to target insects, meaning that these chemicals may be equally lethal to non-target taxa, including chordates. When signal was strong, distinct patterns of sensitivity were evident in the data, which may be informative when assembling toxicity datasets for regulatory use. Although strong signal does not appear to manifest in aquatic toxicity data for most chemicals, we encourage additional phylogenetic evaluations of toxicity data in order to guide the selection of CSE tools and as a means to explore the patterns of chemical sensitivity across the broad diversity of life.