ArticlePloS one2024
Assessment of tuberculosis transmission probability in three Thai prisons based on five dynamic models.
Article in PloS one, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
6 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Transmission models of respiratory infections in carceral settings: A systematic review.Epidemics · 2025Pooled it
- Problems, Causes, Impact, and Preventive Measures for Addressing Violence Faced by Nurses in Healthcare Settings in Thailand.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2026Article
- Tuberculosis in prisons: an integrated prevention and care cascade for a persistent structural epidemic.Frontiers in public health · 2026Review
- The Impact of Body Mass Index on Latent Tuberculosis Infection: Combined Assessment in People Living with HIV.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025Article
- The association between health and prison overcrowding, a scoping review.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Performance of five dynamic models in predicting tuberculosis incidence in three prisons in Thailand.PloS one · 2025Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
This study aimed to assess and compare the probability of tuberculosis (TB) transmission based on five dynamic models: the Wells-Riley equation, two Rudnick & Milton-proposed models based on air changes per hour (ACH) and liters per second per person (L/s/p), the model proposed by Issarow et al, and the Applied Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) TB transmission model. This study also aimed to determine the impact of model parameters on such probabilities in three Thai prisons. A cross-sectional study was conducted using data from 985 prison cells. The TB transmission probability for each cell was calculated using parameters relevant to the specific model formula, and the magnitude of the model agreement was examined by Spearman's rank correlation and Bland-Altman plot. Subsequently, a multiple linear regression analysis was conducted to investigate the influence of each model parameter on the estimated probability. Results revealed that the median (Quartiles 1 and 3) of TB transmission probability among these cells was 0.052 (0.017, 0.180). Compared with the pioneered Wells-Riley's model, the remaining models projected discrepant TB transmission probability from less to more commensurate to the degree of model modification from the pioneered model as follows: Rudnick & Milton (ACH), Issarow et al., and Rudnick & Milton (L/s/p), and the applied SEIR models. The ventilation rate and number of infectious TB patients in each cell or zone had the greatest impact on the estimated TB transmission probability in most models. Additionally, the number of inmates in each cell, the area per person in square meters, and the inmate turnover rate were identified as high-impact parameters in the applied SEIR model. All stakeholders must urgently address these influential parameters to reduce TB transmission in prisons. Moreover, further studies are required to determine their relative validity in accurately predicting TB incidence in prison settings.
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