Factors associated with a better treatment efficacy among psoriasis patients: a study based on decision tree model and logistic regression in Shanghai, China.

backgroundMany effective therapies for psoriasis are being applied in clinical practice in recent years, however, some patients still can't achieve satisfied effect even with biologics. Therefore, it is crucial to identify factors associated with the treatment efficacy among psoriasis patients. This study aims to explore factors influencing the treatment efficacy of psoriasis patients based on decision tree model and logistic regression.

methodsWe implemented an observational study and recruited 512 psoriasis patients in Shanghai Skin Diseases Hospital from 2021 to 2022. We used face-to-face questionnaire interview and physical examination to collect data. Influencing factors of treatment efficacy were analyzed by using logistic regression, and decision tree model based on the CART algorithm. The receiver operator curve (ROC) was plotted for model evaluation and the statistical significance was set at P < 0.05.

resultsThe 512 patients were predominately males (72.1%), with a median age of 47.5 years. In this study, 245 patients achieved ≥ 75% improvement in psoriasis area and severity index (PASI) score in week 8 and was identified as treatment success (47.9%). Logistic regression analysis showed that patients with senior high school and above, without psoriasis family history, without tobacco smoking and alcohol drinking had higher percentage of treatment success in patients with psoriasis. The final decision tree model contained four layers with a total of seventeen nodes. Nine classification rules were extracted and five factors associated with treatment efficacy were screened, which indicated tobacco smoking was the most critical variable for treatment efficacy prediction. Model evaluation by ROC showed that the area under curve (AUC) was 0.79 (95%CI: 0.75 ~ 0.83) both for logistic regression model (0.80 sensitivity and 0.69 specificity) and decision tree model (0.77 sensitivity and 0.73 specificity).

conclusionPsoriasis patients with higher education, without tobacco smoking, alcohol drinking and psoriasis family history had better treatment efficacy. Decision tree model had similar predicting effect with the logistic regression model, but with higher feasibility due to the nature of simple, intuitive, and easy to understand.