ArticleBMC medicine2024
Estimating the relative importance of epidemiological and behavioural parameters for epidemic mpox transmission: a modelling study.
Article in BMC medicine, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
9 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Dynamics of global mpox epidemics, 1970-2025: a systematic review and meta-analysis of evolving transmissibility and intervention effects.BMJ global health · 2026Pooled it
- Risk factors associated with human Mpox infection: a systematic review and meta-analysis.BMJ global health · 2025Pooled it
- From behavioral to structural correlates: a multi-phase analysis of global reported mpox.BMC medicine · 2026Article
- Modeling the 2022 mpox outbreak with a mechanistic network model.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Article
- A Compartmental Mathematical Model to Assess the Impact of Vaccination, Isolation, and Key Epidemiological Parameters on Mpox Control.Medical sciences (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025Article
- A Comparative Analysis of Global Responses to Monkeypox Outbreaks: Lessons Learned and Future Directions - a Mini Narrative Review.Annals of medicine and surgery (2012) · 2025Review
- The evolving mpox threat (2022-2024): clade dynamics, immune evasion, and escalating global health challenges.Frontiers in cellular and infection microbiology · 2025Review
- The resurgence of monkeypox: Epidemiology, clinical features, and public health implications in the post-smallpox eradication era.New microbes and new infections · 2024Review
- From Outbreaks to Artificial Intelligence: A Comprehensive Review of Monkeypox Virus Epidemiology, Diagnosis, Treatment, Vaccination, and Deep Learning Applications.Journal of tropical medicine · 2024Review
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
7 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundMany European countries experienced outbreaks of mpox in 2022, and there was an mpox outbreak in 2023 in the Democratic Republic of Congo. There were many apparent differences between these outbreaks and previous outbreaks of mpox; the recent outbreaks were observed in men who have sex with men after sexual encounters at common events, whereas earlier outbreaks were observed in a wider population with no identifiable link to sexual contacts. These apparent differences meant that data from previous outbreaks could not reliably be used to parametrise infectious disease models during the 2022 and 2023 mpox outbreaks, and modelling efforts were hampered by uncertainty around key transmission and immunity parameters.
methodsWe developed a stochastic, discrete-time metapopulation model for mpox that allowed for sexual and non-sexual transmission and the implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions, specifically contact tracing and pre- and post-exposure vaccinations. We calibrated the model to case data from Berlin and used Sobol sensitivity analysis to identify parameters that mpox transmission is especially sensitive to. We also briefly analysed the sensitivity of the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions to various efficacy parameters.
resultsWe found that variance in the transmission probabilities due to both sexual and non-sexual transmission had a large effect on mpox transmission in the model, as did the level of immunity to mpox conferred by a previous smallpox vaccination. Furthermore, variance in the number of pre-exposure vaccinations offered was the dominant contributor to variance in mpox dynamics in men who have sex with men. If pre-exposure vaccinations were not available, both the accuracy and timeliness of contact tracing had a large impact on mpox transmission in the model.
conclusionsOur results are valuable for guiding epidemiological studies for parameter ascertainment and identifying key factors for success of non-pharmaceutical interventions.
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