Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39014278›Full record

ArticleNeurosurgical review2024

Declining trend in the estimated annual rupture rate of unruptured cerebral aneurysms in Japan: a nationwide study.

Yuyo Maeda, Fusao Ikawa, Masashi Kuwabara, Masahiro Hosogai, Daizo Ishii, Takeshi Morimoto, Takeo Nakayama, Michiyasu Suzuki, Nobutaka Horie

Abstract read
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Article in Neurosurgical review, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Yuyo MaedaDepartment of Neurosurgery, Graduate School of Biomedical and Health Sciences, Hiroshima University, Hiroshima, Japan.
Fusao IkawaDepartment of Neurosurgery, Graduate School of Biomedical and Health Sciences, Hiroshima University, Hiroshima, Japan. fikawa-nsu@umin.ac.jp.
Masashi KuwabaraDepartment of Neurosurgery, Graduate School of Biomedical and Health Sciences, Hiroshima University, Hiroshima, Japan.
Masahiro HosogaiDepartment of Neurosurgery, Graduate School of Biomedical and Health Sciences, Hiroshima University, Hiroshima, Japan.
Daizo IshiiDepartment of Neurosurgery, Graduate School of Biomedical and Health Sciences, Hiroshima University, Hiroshima, Japan.
Takeshi MorimotoDepartment of Clinical Epidemiology, Hyogo Medical University, Nishinomiya, Japan.
Takeo NakayamaSchool of Public Health, Graduate School of Medicine, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan.
Michiyasu SuzukiYamaguchi University School of Medicine, Yamaguchi, Japan.
Nobutaka HorieDepartment of Neurosurgery, Graduate School of Biomedical and Health Sciences, Hiroshima University, Hiroshima, Japan.

Funding

Promotion of Science Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research 23K08521
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The incidence of subarachnoid hemorrhages (SAHs) in Japan has recently decreased. However, trends in the annual rates of unruptured cerebral aneurysms (UCAs) are unclear because calculations based on follow-up periods are limited to patients with ruptured cerebral aneurysms. We aimed to clarify current trends in the estimated annual rupture rates of UCAs in Japan and to identify the most relevant contributing factors. We analyzed data from the Japanese Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare and records of the Japan Neurosurgical Society. The estimated annual rupture rates of UCAs between 2003 and 2018 were calculated according to age-adjusted mortality rates of SAH and number of treated ruptured cerebral aneurysms (RCAs). We estimated trends in annual rupture rates using sensitivity analysis and assessed associations between estimated annual rupture rates and the prevalences of hypertension and current smoking. The estimated annual rupture rate of UCAs significantly decreased from 1.44 to 0.87% and from 0.92 to 0.76%, respectively, in terms of age-adjusted mortality rates of SAH and number of treated RCAs (p < 0.001). The range of changes in estimated annual rupture rates of UCAs was - 1.13%‒0.83%, representing a declining UCA trend of 88%. The estimated annual rupture rates of UCAs declined by 0.02-0.10% and 0.01-0.05% with every percent decrease in hypertension and current smoking prevalence, respectively. The estimated annual rupture rate of UCAs has recently decreased in Japan, possibly due to a decrease in the prevalence of hypertension rather than smoking.

Indexed as

Aneurysm, RupturedIntracranial AneurysmSubarachnoid HemorrhageAdultAgedFemaleHumansHypertensionIncidenceJapanMaleMiddle AgedPrevalenceRisk FactorsNationwide registryRupture rateSubarachnoid hemorrhage

Identifiers

PMID39014278

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.