ArticleNature human behaviour2024
Humans adaptively deploy forward and backward prediction.
Article in Nature human behaviour, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 5 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed.
- Trial-by-trial learning of successor representations in human behavior.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2025Article
- Trial-by-trial learning of successor representations in human behavior.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- Proactive and reactive construction of memory-based preferences.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Proactive and reactive construction of memory-based preferences.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2024Article
- The causal structure and computational value of narratives.Trends in cognitive sciences · 2024Review
Corrections and comments
- Erratum issued
Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
Abstract
The formation of predictions is essential to our ability to build models of the world and use them for intelligent decision-making. Here we challenge the dominant assumption that humans form only forward predictions, which specify what future events are likely to follow a given present event. We demonstrate that in some environments, it is more efficient to use backward prediction, which specifies what present events are likely to precede a given future event. This is particularly the case in diverging environments, where possible future events outnumber possible present events. Correspondingly, in six preregistered experiments (n = 1,299) involving both simple decision-making and more challenging planning tasks, we find that humans engage in backward prediction in divergent environments and use forward prediction in convergent environments. We thus establish that humans adaptively deploy forward and backward prediction in the service of efficient decision-making.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.