Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39004514›Full record

ArticleAmerican journal of epidemiology2025

Spatiotemporal patterns of excess mortality from non-COVID causes of death in the United States, March to December 2020.

Lauren C Zalla, Catherine R Lesko

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in American journal of epidemiology, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

2 authors.

Lauren C ZallaDepartment of Epidemiology, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland 21205, United States.ORCID 0000-0001-7665-2230
Catherine R LeskoDepartment of Epidemiology, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland 21205, United States.ORCID 0000-0002-1717-2592

Funding

Johns Hopkins HIV Epidemiology and Prevention Sciences Training ProgramT32AI102623 · NIAID · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI Shruti H Mehta · 2013 to 2026
$5.3M
Unhealthy alcohol use, other drug use, and mental health disorders: comorbidity burden in people with HIV, gaps in treatment, and impact on the HIV care continuumK01AA028193 · NIAAA · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI LESKO, CATHERINE · 2019 to 2023
$900k
The Urban Environment as a Modifiable Social Determinant of Health among People with HIVK99AI181608 · NIAID · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI ZALLA, LAUREN C. · 2024 to 2025
$253k
NIAAA NIH HHS K01 AA028193NIAID NIH HHS K99 AI181608NIAID NIH HHS T32 AI102623NIH HHS K01 AA028193
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

To estimate the burden of excess mortality from 17 underlying causes of death between March and December 2020 in the United States and to compare trends in excess deaths from non-COVID causes vs from COVID-19. Using time-series models, we estimated monthly counts of all-cause and cause-specific excess deaths. We stratified by geographic region and compared temporal trends in excess deaths from non-COVID causes to trends in deaths attributed to COVID-19. Of approximately 500 000 excess deaths, 70% were attributed to COVID-19. We observed increases in several underlying causes of death, ranging from a 3% increase in kidney disease deaths to a 24% increase in homicides, as well as decreases in deaths from cancer (-0.3%), influenza and pneumonia (-2%), chronic lower respiratory disease (-3%), and suicide (-7%). Trends in excess deaths from cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and Alzheimer disease closely mirrored trends in deaths from COVID-19. Trends in excess liver disease, homicide, suicide, and motor vehicle accident deaths were negatively correlated with trends in deaths from COVID-19. There was wide regional variation in excess death rates for some causes of death, including a disproportionate increase in homicide and motor vehicle accident deaths in the Great Lakes and a sustained reduction in cancer deaths in the Mideast and New England. Increases in cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and Alzheimer disease deaths from March to December 2020 likely reflect health care system disruptions or acute complications of COVID-19. Excess deaths from homicide and liver disease are more likely to reflect social and economic effects of the emerging pandemic or other separate causes.

Indexed as

COVID-19MortalityCause of DeathHomicideHumansSARS-CoV-2Spatio-Temporal AnalysisSuicideUnited Statescause of deathCOVID-19excess mortality

Identifiers

PMID39004514
PMCPMC11879538

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.