Evidence map›Paper›PMID 38997466›Full record

ArticleNature cancer2024

Tumor evolution metrics predict recurrence beyond 10 years in locally advanced prostate cancer.

Javier Fernandez-Mateos, George D Cresswell, Nicholas Trahearn, Katharine Webb, Chirine Sakr, Andrea Lampis, Christine Stuttle, Catherine M Corbishley, Vasilis Stavrinides, Luis Zapata and 17 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature cancer, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 21 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
21citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

21 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Impact of Low-Dose X-Ray Radiation Exposure on Lung Cancer Progression.International journal of molecular sciences · 2026
    Article
  3. Immune Spatial Organization Predicts Distant Metastasis Risk in Aggressive Localized Prostate Cancer.Clinical cancer research : an official journal of the American Association for Cancer Research · 2026
    Article
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. A Computational Pathology Model to Predict Docetaxel Benefit in Localized High-Risk and Metastatic Prostate Cancer.Clinical cancer research : an official journal of the American Association for Cancer Research · 2026
    Article
  7. Article
  8. Review
  9. A Darwinian Perspective on Tumor Evolution.International journal of biological sciences · 2026
    Review
  10. Article
  11. Article
  12. Article
  13. Article
  14. Article
  15. Article
  16. Article
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  20. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

27 authors.

Javier Fernandez-Mateos *Evolutionary Genomics and Modelling Lab, Centre for Evolution and Cancer, The Institute of Cancer Research, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-4949-4131
George D Cresswell *Evolutionary Genomics and Modelling Lab, Centre for Evolution and Cancer, The Institute of Cancer Research, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-3303-068X
Nicholas Trahearn *Evolutionary Genomics and Modelling Lab, Centre for Evolution and Cancer, The Institute of Cancer Research, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-8596-0996
Katharine WebbEvolutionary Genomics and Modelling Lab, Centre for Evolution and Cancer, The Institute of Cancer Research, London, UK.
Chirine SakrEvolutionary Genomics and Modelling Lab, Centre for Evolution and Cancer, The Institute of Cancer Research, London, UK.
Andrea LampisEvolutionary Genomics and Modelling Lab, Centre for Evolution and Cancer, The Institute of Cancer Research, London, UK.
Christine StuttleThe Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust, London, UK.
Catherine M CorbishleyDivision of Radiotherapy and Imaging, The Institute of Cancer Research, London, UK.
Vasilis StavrinidesDivision of Surgery and Interventional Science, UCL, London, UK.
Luis ZapataEvolutionary Genomics and Modelling Lab, Centre for Evolution and Cancer, The Institute of Cancer Research, London, UK.
Inmaculada SpiteriEvolutionary Genomics and Modelling Lab, Centre for Evolution and Cancer, The Institute of Cancer Research, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-1097-8972
Timon HeideEvolutionary Genomics and Modelling Lab, Centre for Evolution and Cancer, The Institute of Cancer Research, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-1386-7469
Lewis GallagherMolecular Pathology Section, The Institute of Cancer Research, London, UK.
Chela JamesEvolutionary Genomics and Modelling Lab, Centre for Evolution and Cancer, The Institute of Cancer Research, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-3996-0909
Daniele RamazzottiUniversity of Milano Bicocca, Milan, Italy.ORCID 0000-0002-6087-2666
Annie GaoBob Champion Cancer Unit, The Institute of Cancer Research and Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust, London, UK.
Zsofia Kote-JaraiOncogenetics Team, The Institute of Cancer Research, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-6329-5155
Ahmet AcarEvolutionary Genomics and Modelling Lab, Centre for Evolution and Cancer, The Institute of Cancer Research, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-2478-8029
Lesley TrueloveBob Champion Cancer Unit, The Institute of Cancer Research and Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust, London, UK.
Paula ProszekMolecular Pathology Section, The Institute of Cancer Research, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-0780-6790
Julia MurrayThe Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust, London, UK.
Alison ReidThe Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust, London, UK.
Anna WilkinsThe Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust, London, UK.
Michael HubankMolecular Pathology Section, The Institute of Cancer Research, London, UK.
Ros EelesThe Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-3698-6241
David DearnaleyDivision of Radiotherapy and Imaging, The Institute of Cancer Research, London, UK. david.dearnaley@icr.ac.uk.ORCID 0000-0002-3954-2806
Andrea SottorivaEvolutionary Genomics and Modelling Lab, Centre for Evolution and Cancer, The Institute of Cancer Research, London, UK. andrea.sottoriva@fht.org.ORCID 0000-0001-6709-9533

Funding

The Role of the Microbiome in Cancer Suppression and Susceptibility Across SpeciesU54CA217376 · NCI · ARIZONA STATE UNIVERSITY-TEMPE CAMPUS · PI MALEY, CARLO · 2018 to 2022
$8.6M
AIRC 2279Cancer Research UK 17528Cancer Research UK A22909Cancer Research UK A26815Cancer Research UK C46/A10588C33589/A19727Cancer Research UK C46/A2131C46/A3976Medical Research Council MR/P000789/1NCI NIH HHS U54 CA217376Wellcome TrustWellcome Trust 105104/Z/14/Z
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Cancer evolution lays the groundwork for predictive oncology. Testing evolutionary metrics requires quantitative measurements in controlled clinical trials. We mapped genomic intratumor heterogeneity in locally advanced prostate cancer using 642 samples from 114 individuals enrolled in clinical trials with a 12-year median follow-up. We concomitantly assessed morphological heterogeneity using deep learning in 1,923 histological sections from 250 individuals. Genetic and morphological (Gleason) diversity were independent predictors of recurrence (hazard ratio (HR) = 3.12 and 95% confidence interval (95% CI) = 1.34-7.3; HR = 2.24 and 95% CI = 1.28-3.92). Combined, they identified a group with half the median time to recurrence. Spatial segregation of clones was also an independent marker of recurrence (HR = 2.3 and 95% CI = 1.11-4.8). We identified copy number changes associated with Gleason grade and found that chromosome 6p loss correlated with reduced immune infiltration. Matched profiling of relapse, decades after diagnosis, confirmed that genomic instability is a driving force in prostate cancer progression. This study shows that combining genomics with artificial intelligence-aided histopathology leads to the identification of clinical biomarkers of evolution.

Indexed as

Neoplasm GradingNeoplasm Recurrence, LocalProstatic NeoplasmsAgedBiomarkers, TumorDeep LearningDisease ProgressionDNA Copy Number VariationsGenomic InstabilityHumansMaleMiddle AgedBiomarkers, Tumor

Identifiers

PMID38997466
PMCPMC11424488

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.